Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO PROMOTE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PRECLUDING ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO, IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A DRIER, MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND STACKED HIGH
PRESSURE, POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND 20
PERCENT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM TO THE 90S AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
THE MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE WILL BE OVER 100 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS
ABOUT 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT DHN AND VLD. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS AROUND DAWN AND IS MOST LIKELY AT DHN AND
VLD.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE HIGHER THAT WHAT IS NORMALLY
EXPECTED WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS DUE TO SOUTHWEST SWELLS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DECREASE STARTING ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN NOT
EXPECTED, THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  94  73  95  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
PANAMA CITY   76  86  76  88  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
DOTHAN        72  91  73  93  73 /  10  30  10  20  10
ALBANY        72  94  72  96  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
VALDOSTA      71  95  70  96  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    72  94  72  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  10
APALACHICOLA  77  89  76  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...WESTON