Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

THE 11 AM EDT MESOSANALYSIS SHOWED A MESO HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL BIG BEND, EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, AND SOUTH
GA. THE RELATIVELY THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THIS REGION, ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW FL THIS
MORNING, HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS IN THIS REGION WE EXPECT
ONLY ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT HEATING TO ALLOW SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG VARIOUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING IN GA AND AL.

ALTHOUGH OUR REGION IS SITUATED UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE
GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES MINIMAL Q-G FORCING. HOWEVER, THERE IS
PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, SO ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER
FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION, ONCE THE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AREAS RECOVER. THE
LATEST SUITE OF CAMS FORECAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BY DAWN, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR
FAR INLAND AS WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAKENING AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
FORCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. STORMS WILL FORM OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST NEAR
SUNRISE AND SPREAD INLAND, GRADUALLY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW, RIDGING WILL HAVE BUILT WEST
INTO THE REGION AND FORCED THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY
OUT OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. WILL HOLD SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL POPS WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE, POPS WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH SCATTERED SEABREEZE STORMS EXPECTED.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TOMORROW, EXPECT TEMPS TO
CLIMB SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. BY
FRIDAY, HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL RAIN CHANCES RESULTING FROM THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY]

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND/OR FOG IS LOW, SO THE
MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL BE SHRA/TSRA. WE THINK THAT MOST OF THE
RAIN HAS ENDED AT KECP, KTLH, AND VLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TSRA
ARE STILL LIKELY AT KDHN AND KABY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE
TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING- AROUND DAWN AT KECP,
THEN KTLH BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD FORCE SEAS
INTO ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH, ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, THOUGH
RIVERS REMAIN AT LEVELS CAPABLE OF HANDLING THE EXPECTED QPF WITH
NO PROBLEMS. THE ONLY RIVER IN ACTION STAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE
SHOAL NEAR CRESTVIEW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, EXPECT WIDESPREAD AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND AROUND A
HALF OF AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA. STARTING
FRIDAY, WE'LL SWITCH BACK TO OUR MORE TYPICAL SCATTERING OF
SEABREEZE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  84  74  91  73 /  40  80  20  30  10
PANAMA CITY   74  83  77  86  76 /  50  80  40  30  20
DOTHAN        70  84  71  89  71 /  20  60  20  40  10
ALBANY        70  85  71  91  71 /  30  60  10  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  85  72  92  71 /  20  70  10  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  86  73  92  73 /  40  70  10  30  10
APALACHICOLA  74  82  77  88  77 /  50  80  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN