Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT, ANALYZED AT 18Z TO BE RUNNING MOSTLY
PARALLEL WITH I-10, WILL HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF 500MB LOW, HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR AND
WEAKER LAPSE RATES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRENGTH OF STORMS WE SEE TODAY (COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY), AND KEEP
STORMS CONFINED MOSTLY TO FL ZONES. STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS
MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND ANY ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION AND THE SEABREEZE. FOR TONIGHT,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

ALTHOUGH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS SLOWLY TRAVERSED
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, A RESIDUAL WEAK TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DRIER, DESCENDING SIDE OF THIS TROUGH, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE, THOUGH SOMETIMES SUCH BOUNDARIES CAN LINGER LONGER THAN
THE NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES, AND CAN SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN FL, WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR SEA BREEZE FRONT
WILL TRIGGER DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN THE REGION WITH THE MOST
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE POP RANGES FROM 30 PERCENT WEST OF
TALLAHASSEE TO 50 PERCENT AROUND CROSS CITY. THE POP WILL BE IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TOO LOW TO WORRY
AMOUNT SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. IN FACT, THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (ECAM) SUGGESTS THAT EVEN
PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE GIVEN UP ON BUILDING A MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST, AND NOW MAINTAIN A TROUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE PERIOD OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE TROUGH, BUT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 20-30
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING POPS
LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TLH, ECP, AND DHN SHOULD EXPECT MVFR/IFR
IF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TLH AND VLD
FROM 06-12Z TOMORROW MORNING WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. AT THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD TYPICAL SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND/AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT, AND DOMINATED BY THE DIURNAL LAND
AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND SOMEWHAT MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DISPERSIONS WILL STAY BELOW 70 UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW DISPERSIONS BELOW 20...DUE TO CALM NIGHTTIME
WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE PERIOD

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT RISE ON AREA RIVERS. THE
STAGE AT BRUCE WAS STILL AT ACTION LEVEL, BUT IS LIKELY TO FALL
BELOW THIS LEVEL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  92  69  93  71 /  20  40  10  30  20
PANAMA CITY   72  86  73  87  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
DOTHAN        68  90  70  92  71 /  10  20   0  20  10
ALBANY        68  90  69  92  69 /  10  10   0  20  10
VALDOSTA      68  91  68  92  69 /  30  30  20  20  20
CROSS CITY    69  92  68  92  69 /  30  50  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  71  87  73  88  74 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1255 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VANCEVILLE              31.43N 83.44W
06/03/2015                   TIFT               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE VANCEVILLE AREA

0607 PM     HAIL             VANCEVILLE              31.43N 83.44W
06/03/2015  E2.00 INCH       TIFT               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE DUE TO LARGE HAIL IN THE
            VANCEVILLE AREA

&&

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