Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EST Sun Jan 4 2015

...Isolated Strong Storms This Morning Southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle...

...Arctic Blast on Tap for the Middle to Latter Work Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A cold front will move through the area during the afternoon/evening
hours. Ahead of the front, expect rain and thunderstorms beginning in
the morning hours for northwestern portions of the CWA. A few
thunderstorms could be strong. Rain totals are expected to stay
below 1 inch with higher amounts possible locally. Cloudy skies and
warm temps are expected ahead of the front. Patchy fog is likely
this morning particularly along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
Highs today will range from upper 60s in the northwest to upper 70s
in the southeast.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
The cold front will sweep southeast of Dixie County by around 02Z
with some light rain perhaps lingering behind the boundary for a
couple of hours. PoPs will range from 20 along the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers to 60 over the Lower Suwannee Valley.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the front. Temps by
daybreak Monday will range from the upper 30s north and west of
Dothan and Albany to the mid 40s in Tallahassee and lower 50s in
Dixie County. Highs will be a couple of degrees below normal ranging
from the mid 50s over Southeast AL to the mid 60s in Dixie. Monday
night will see most inland areas dip into the 30s with a brief light
freeze possible north and west of Dothan and Albany. Frost could
occur as far southeast as Tallahassee. Highs on Tuesday will be 6-9
degrees warmer than on Monday.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The main story this period will be the frigid air mass that arrives
after the passage of an arctic front Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. Guidance is coming into better agreement that we will see a
hard freeze across most of our inland counties Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. In addition, wind chill readings could drop into
the lower teens which would prompt advisories. Thursday's high
temps will only range from around 40 degrees north of Albany and
Dothan to the mid 40s near the coast. Another widespread hard freeze
is expected Thursday night. However, with much lighter winds in
place by that time, wind chill readings should drop no lower than
about 20 degrees. It should be noted that some of the operational
MOS is colder than the typical blend we use and a downward
adjustment was once again coordinated with neighboring offices,
mainly for Friday morning. A gradual moderating trend in temps
will occur late in the week with highs on Saturday within a couple
degrees of seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] IFR ceilings will continue into the early
morning hours. LIFR ceilings are likely at TLH and ECP. TLH and
ECP have the best chance for fog this morning with patchy fog
elsewhere. Thunderstorms are likely beginning in the morning for
DHN and ECP then progressing eastward into the afternoon. Winds
will become northwesterly once the cold front passes in the
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.Marine...
Onshore winds may briefly reach cautionary levels today ahead of a
cold front. Winds will shift to the northwest and then north behind
the front and increase to advisory levels late tonight into Monday
morning. Winds will drop below headline criteria by Monday
afternoon. An arctic front will sweep across the waters on
Wednesday with winds surging well above small craft advisory
thresholds with frequent gale-force gusts possible Wednesday night
into Thursday. Winds will drop below headline criteria Thursday
night.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A drier air mass will arrive on Monday in the wake of a cold front.
Minimum relative humidities are expected to remain above Red Flag
criteria for the next few days.

&&

.Hydrology...
All area rivers are now below flood stage. Rainfall through the
weekend will generally be 0.5 to 1 inch. Higher amounts are possible
locally. No significant river flooding is expected with this next
batch of rain.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  45  60  35  69 /  80  30   0   0  10
Panama City   72  45  59  43  67 /  90  10   0   0  10
Dothan        68  39  55  35  64 /  90  10   0   0   0
Albany        71  40  58  34  66 /  80  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      76  45  60  38  67 /  80  40   0   0  10
Cross City    78  51  65  41  71 /  70  60   0   0  10
Apalachicola  73  47  60  42  67 /  80  30   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     South Walton.

GA...None.

AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/WOOL