River Flood Warning 4, NWS Tallahassee, FL

515 
WGUS82 KTAE 090148
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
848 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD (CR 12) AFFECTING GADSDEN AND LEON 
  COUNTIES 
  
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR HAVANA (US 27) AFFECTING GADSDEN AND LEON 
  COUNTIES 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST 
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT 
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU 
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND 
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT 
CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT.

&&

FLC039-073-100148-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150110T1800Z/
/CONF1.1.ER.150108T0530Z.150109T0100Z.150110T1200Z.NO/
848 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD (CR 12).
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 36.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 36.0 FEET...PRIMARY ACCESS TO HOMES ALONG COUNTY HIGHWAY
  12 ON THE EAST BANK OF THE RIVER IN LEON COUNTY MAY BECOME 
  RESTRICTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 8432 3064 8433 3058 8439 3056 8436 3068 8422


$$

FLC039-073-100147-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150113T0600Z/
/HVNF1.1.ER.150107T2030Z.150110T0600Z.150113T0000Z.NO/
848 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR HAVANA (US 27).
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:15 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.6 FEET BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...THIS LEVEL IS CONSIDERED MINIMUM FLOOD 
  STAGE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GAGE, A FEW HUNTING COTTAGES AND FISH 
  CAMPS WILL BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 8439 3049 8443 3047 8448 3043 8447 3047 8438 3056 8436


$$

357 
WGUS82 KTAE 091516
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
 
  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD (CR 12) AFFECTING GADSDEN AND LEON 
  COUNTIES 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR HAVANA (US 27) AFFECTING GADSDEN AND LEON 
  COUNTIES 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST 
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT 
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU 
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND 
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT 
CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT.

&&

FLC039-073-100600-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150110T0600Z/
/CONF1.1.ER.150108T0530Z.150109T0100Z.150110T0000Z.NO/
1016 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD (CR 12).
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 36.0 FEET.
* IMPACT...AT 36.0 FEET...PRIMARY ACCESS TO HOMES ALONG COUNTY HIGHWAY
  12 ON THE EAST BANK OF THE RIVER IN LEON COUNTY MAY BECOME 
  RESTRICTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 8432 3064 8433 3058 8439 3056 8436 3068 8422


$$

FLC039-073-101516-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150113T0600Z/
/HVNF1.1.ER.150107T2030Z.150110T0600Z.150113T0000Z.NO/
1016 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR HAVANA (US 27).
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.5 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...THIS LEVEL IS CONSIDERED MINIMUM FLOOD 
  STAGE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GAGE, A FEW HUNTING COTTAGES AND FISH 
  CAMPS WILL BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 8439 3049 8443 3047 8448 3043 8447 3047 8438 3056 8436


$$

134 
WGUS82 KTAE 092122
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
422 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
FLORIDA...
 
  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR CONCORD (CR 12) AFFECTING GADSDEN AND LEON 
  COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST 
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT 
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU 
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND 
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT 
CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT.

&&

FLC039-073-092152-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150110T0600Z/
/CONF1.1.ER.150108T0530Z.150109T0100Z.150109T1900Z.NO/
422 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
NEAR CONCORD (CR 12).
* AT  4:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.97 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  2:00 PM FRIDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 36.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 35.8 FEET BY SATURDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 36.0 FEET...PRIMARY ACCESS TO HOMES ALONG COUNTY HIGHWAY
  12 ON THE EAST BANK OF THE RIVER IN LEON COUNTY MAY BECOME 
  RESTRICTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 8432 3064 8433 3058 8439 3056 8436 3068 8422


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2015

...Arctic Air Mass Continuing To Push Into The Area...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Showing up very clearly this morning on WV imagery is a potent +PV
reservoir over the Southeast. Through today, this anomaly will
drift east into the western Atlantic and begin the transition from
an amplified eastern U.S. trough to a more zonal upper-level
pattern locally. At the surface, a 03z subjective analysis placed
two separate cold fronts across the Southeast. The first had
almost pushed completely through south Florida and draped west
through the central/southern Gulf. The second, which delineated
the coldest and driest air mass, stretched from near Savannah, west
through Troy, and continuing through Jackson. A quick look at
recent obs would suggest that the secondary front now lies along
I-10 in the Florida panhandle, east through Bainbridge and
Savannah. Winds have been sustained in the 10 to 15 knot range
with gusts commonly as high as 25 knots. The strongest gusts have
been along and ahead of the secondary front, though sustained
winds have been staying elevated ahead of and behind the front.

Through today, the secondary front will overspread the entire
Tri-State region with the cold Arctic dome of high pressure
spreading in behind it. The somewhat shallow cold air dome doesn't
extend much past 850mb per model cross sections and upstream
soundings. While the low-level ridge drops south today, a piece of
the northernmost portion will pinch off and move east as a weak
+PV anomaly dives out of the Northwest and amplifies a weak ridge
as it catches up to the aforementioned departing anomaly. As this
piece of the low- level ridge moves east, it will veer flow
gradually from 850mb down through the surface through the day. The
near surface flow should hold at least some sort of northeasterly
(or continental) component through much of the day while a more
maritime air mass slips in just above the surface. This will likely
limit mixing today, in fact, it appears as though mixing heights
will actually decrease today from overnight depths as the above
unfolds. Essentially, what this means for high temperatures is
that sunshine and CAA will be battling through the day. With
temperatures starting the day in the 20s everywhere and a
continued but weakening CAA regime, expect temperatures to peak in
the middle to upper 30s across Alabama and Georgia this afternoon.
In Florida, it won't be much better with around 40 degrees
expected along the I-10 corridor, and low 40s in the southeast Big
Bend and along the coast. Although the wind will be gradually
weakening through the day, we'll still be dealing with some nasty
wind chill values making the maximum apparent temperature hold in
the 30s everywhere today and not climbing out of the 20s until
around 11 am. Wake-up wind chills will be in the low teens to
single digits area-wide.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The forecast for tonight is a bit more uncertain than normal for a
24-hour forecast. This mainly centers around the interplay between
a secondary cold front currently entering the Dakotas, and the
low-level anticyclone associated with the Arctic air mass now
pushing into the area. By this evening, the surface cold front
will have likely surged into the Mississippi River Valley, with
the low-level high centered somewhere near the coastal Carolinas.
This will set up a narrow layer of "return flow" just above the
surface over Florida and south Georgia. This south to southeast
flow in the 950-850mb layer should lead to an increase in low
cloud cover that will likely clip some part of the far southeast
or east sections of our forecast area (primarily east of TLH).
This cloud cover may affect the temperature trends in those areas,
although it is forecast to arrive mainly after 03Z which could
allow for a several hour window for temperatures to cool below
freezing once again. Nevertheless, we expect low temperatures to
be a little warmer than the rest of the forecast area in the
eastern Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia. Over the rest
of the forecast area, models show a marked increase in high-level
RH tonight, so a mid-high cloud layer may develop as well.
Depending on how opaque this cloud layer is, that could affect
radiational cooling and low temperatures over the remainder of the
forecast area. While another hard freeze is still possible over
parts of the area again tonight, the uncertainties are high enough
to preclude the issuance of a Hard Freeze Warning right now.

Related to the "return flow" over our southeast areas tonight, a
few models generate enough vertical motion in this shallow layer
near saturation to produce some light QPF. This is mainly shown on
NAM-based models for now. At Valdosta and Perry, about 6-8 of the
22 SREF members indicate measurable precipitation (below about
0.05"). This is somewhat concerning for the simple reason that if
temperatures are able to fall below freezing before the cloud cover
moves in, this precipitation could fall in the form of FZDZ or
very light FZRA. It still seems more likely at the present time
that the freezing precip scenario will not occur, but there is a
low probability of some impact weather tonight. The areas we are
talking about are mainly from Jefferson (FL), Brooks (GA), Cook
(GA), and Berrien (GA) Counties and to the southeast. Negating
factors include: (1) a very dry air mass in the lowest 1000ft AGL,
(2) the very shallow saturated layer will significantly limit
precip intensity, (3) very light precip rates may be unable to
erode the dry air in the short timeframe available in order to
reach the ground, AND (4) even if precip were to occur (which is
far from certain), temperatures could still be above freezing.
Given the low probability, for now we have just included a silent
10% PoP in the forecast but we will be re-evaluating this as new
model runs arrive this morning. However, it is something to pay
attention to and remember the forecast could change later today.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Several ejecting waves aloft in broad zonal or west-southwest flow
will keep some rain chances in the extended forecast. Models have
not shown much consistency on the timing of these waves, so for
now the rain chances in individual periods is not too high.
However, there is a good chance of rain at some point in the
extended range. Temperatures will be moderating to levels closer
to climatological normals.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail
for much of the TAF. Gusty winds this morning will gradually
decrease through the day at all terminals. Expect MVFR ceilings to
spread northwest into VLD later tonight.

&&

.Marine...

Gale force gusts have been observed for much of the night at all
our offshore buoy and tower observations, so the Gale Warning will
remain in effect until 15Z. After that a Small Craft Advisory is
in effect until 00Z. This was the way those products were
inherited and they still seem to be on track. Winds and seas will
slowly subside today, eventually falling below advisory levels by
tonight. A secondary cold front should lead to another increase in
winds and seas on Friday Night - most likely to SCEC headline
levels. Those elevated winds and seas may continue into the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

While an extremely dry air mass is expected to overspread the
region today, only marginal Red Flag conditions exist due to the
expected cold afternoon highs. Will keep a Red Flag warning up for
AL today, though at this time critical RH durations appear to be
rather marginal. Throughout GA, high enough fuel moisture levels
will preclude Red Flag conditions. In north Florida, an argument
could be made for Red Flag conditions in Walton, Washington, Leon,
Wakulla, and Dixie counties as ERC values above 26 will couple
with low RH and elevated winds. However, due to the fact that the
strongest winds will be earlier in the day (outside of the lowest
RH), and marginal ERC values, will hold off on a warning across
north Florida. After today, RH values will climb to above critical
levels and continue to moderate through the weekend into next
week.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Apalachicola River at Blountstown will linger near flood stage
for the next couple days, but no substantial rainfall is forecast
across the region over the next several days. Area streams and
rivers should continue to subside.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   41  25  54  30  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
Panama City   41  33  52  34  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
Dothan        37  25  47  27  50 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        36  22  48  26  51 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      39  29  51  30  54 /   0  10  10  10  10
Cross City    43  34  57  33  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  43  35  55  36  55 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon for
     all zones.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon for
     all zones.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for all zones.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for all zones.

AL...Hard Freeze Warning until Noon CST today for all zones.
     Wind Chill Advisory until Noon CST today for all zones.
     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for all zones.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for all marine zones.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for all marine zones.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS