River Flood Warning 18, NWS Tallahassee, FL

042 
WGUS42 KTAE 190451
FLWTAE
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1251 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has extended the Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Florida...

  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-200451-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.150421T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150421T0000Z.150423T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1151 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* From Monday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 11:00 PM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to 
  rise to near 12.4 feet by Thursday early afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-200451-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.150421T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.1.ER.150421T0600Z.150424T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1151 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* From late Monday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:45 PM Saturday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by early Tuesday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 13.9 feet by early Friday morning.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

998 
WGUS82 KTAE 191508
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-201508-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.150420T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0000Z.150423T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1008 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* From this evening until further notice.
* At  9:00 AM Sunday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 12.5 feet by Thursday early afternoon.
* Impact At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-201508-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.150421T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.1.ER.150421T0300Z.150423T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1008 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* From Monday evening until further notice.
* At  8:45 AM Sunday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and 
  continue to rise to near 13.8 feet by early Thursday morning. 
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact At 13.0 feet: Low areas along BH Reddick, Rooks Bluff, 
  Smokehouse Lake and Herring Roads in Walton County become subject to
  flooding. Low areas along Little Acre and Strickland Roads in 
  Washington County become subject to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

235 
WGUS42 KTAE 201340
FLWTAE
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
940 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC131-211340-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.150420T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T1800Z.150425T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
840 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* From this afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:45 AM Monday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to 
  rise to near 14.9 feet by Saturday morning. Additional rises are 
  possible thereafter.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

221 
WGUS82 KTAE 210017
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
817 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Newton (SR 134) affecting Dale County 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

ALC045-211700-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-150421T1700Z/
/NEWA1.1.ER.150419T2141Z.150420T0330Z.150421T1100Z.NO/
717 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday afternoon...The Flood Warning
continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Newton (SR 134).
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  6:30 PM Monday the stage was 20.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact: At 19.0 feet: Minor flooding will begin to affect farmland 
  in low lying areas near the Choctawhatchee River.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 8553 3137 8566 3120 8575 3120 8566 3132 8560 3133 8547


$$

FLC059-133-220017-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
717 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until further notice.
* At  6:01 PM Monday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 13.9 feet by 
  Thursday early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-220017-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
717 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  6:45 PM Monday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by 
  Saturday morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

490 
WGUS82 KTAE 211414
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1014 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Alabama...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Newton (SR 134) affecting Dale County
  Choctawhatchee River at Geneva (SR 52) affecting Geneva County
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

ALC045-211444-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-150421T1700Z/
/NEWA1.1.ER.150419T2141Z.150420T0330Z.150421T0840Z.NO/
914 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Newton (SR 134).
* At  8:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 17.3 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  3:40 AM Tuesday.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to 12.4 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact: At 19.0 feet: Minor flooding will begin to affect farmland 
  in low lying areas near the Choctawhatchee River.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 8553 3137 8566 3120 8575 3120 8566 3132 8560 3133 8547


$$

ALC061-211444-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150422T1200Z/
/GNVA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
914 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Choctawhatchee River at Geneva (SR 52).
* At  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will crest below flood stage at 21.5 feet after
  midnight tomorrow.
* Impact: At 23.0 feet: Minor lowland flooding begins.

&&

LAT...LON 3120 8575 3114 8586 3099 8588 3099 8580 3112 8578 3120 8566


$$

FLC059-133-221413-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150426T0600Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T0000Z.150426T0000Z.NO/
914 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until late Saturday night.
* At  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 13.6 feet by 
  tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  evening.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-221413-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
914 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  8:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by 
  Saturday early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

190 
WGUS82 KTAE 220055
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
855 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...

   Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC131-230055-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150424T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
755 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  6:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by 
  Friday afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

632 
WGUS82 KTAE 221246
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
846 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. 

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-231246-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150426T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T1200Z.150425T1800Z.NO/
746 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Saturday evening.
* At  7:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 13.7 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  early afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-231246-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
746 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  6:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by 
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

727 
WGUS82 KTAE 230208
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1008 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-240208-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150425T1600Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T0600Z.150425T1000Z.NO/
908 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Saturday morning.
* At  8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 13.3 feet by morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-240208-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
908 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.1 feet by 
  Saturday evening then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

465 
WGUS82 KTAE 231334
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
934 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-241334-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150425T1500Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T0800Z.150425T0900Z.NO/
834 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Saturday morning.
* At  8:00 AM Thursday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-241334-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
834 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  7:45 AM Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.1 feet by 
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

178 
WGUS82 KTAE 240057
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-250057-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150425T1800Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T0800Z.150425T1200Z.NO/
757 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At  7:00 PM Thursday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-250057-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
757 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until further notice.
* At  7:45 PM Thursday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.1 feet by early
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

935 
WGUS82 KTAE 241403
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1002 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-251402-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150425T1500Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T0800Z.150425T0900Z.NO/
902 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Saturday morning.
* At  8:01 AM Friday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-251401-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150429T1200Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0600Z.150429T0600Z.NO/
902 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At  8:45 AM Friday the stage was 14.8 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.0 feet by after
  midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

600 
WGUS82 KTAE 250340
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-251800-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150425T1800Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T0800Z.150425T1200Z.NO/
1040 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At 10:00 PM Friday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-260339-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150429T1500Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0600Z.150429T0900Z.NO/
1040 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...The Flood Warning
continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At  9:45 PM Friday the stage was 14.8 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 14.8 feet by after
  midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday 
  morning.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

145 
WGUS82 KTAE 251350
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90) affecting Holmes and 
  Washington Counties 
  
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC059-133-260000-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150426T0000Z/
/CARF1.1.ER.150420T0200Z.150423T0800Z.150425T1800Z.NO/
850 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Caryville (US 90).
* Until this evening.
* At  8:00 AM Saturday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this afternoon.
* Impact: At 12.0 feet: Extensive lowland flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8588 3085 8591 3077 8589 3070 8592 3070 8581 3099 8580


$$

FLC131-261350-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150429T1800Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0300Z.150429T1200Z.NO/
850 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  7:45 AM Saturday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

317 
WGUS82 KTAE 260138
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
938 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC131-270138-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150429T1800Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0300Z.150429T1200Z.NO/
838 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  7:45 PM Saturday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 14.6 feet by after
  midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday 
  morning.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

862 
WGUS82 KTAE 261249
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
849 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC131-271249-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150430T0000Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0300Z.150429T1800Z.NO/
749 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening...The Flood Warning
continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At  6:45 AM Sunday the stage was 14.4 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Wednesday early afternoon.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

237 
WGUS82 KTAE 270140
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
940 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC131-280140-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150430T0900Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0300Z.150430T0300Z.NO/
840 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Wednesday night...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until late Wednesday night.
* At  7:45 PM Sunday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Wednesday before midnight.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

890 
WGUS82 KTAE 271338
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
938 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC131-281338-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150430T0300Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0300Z.150429T2100Z.NO/
838 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At  7:45 AM Monday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Flood waters impact storage areas underneath 
  homes on the east and west banks of the Choctawatchee River near 
  Bruce.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

389 
WGUS82 KTAE 280102
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC131-290102-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150429T0600Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0300Z.150429T0000Z.NO/
802 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* Until late Tuesday night.
* At 7:45 PM Monday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact: At 13.0 feet: Low areas along BH Reddick, Rooks Bluff, 
  Smokehouse Lake and Herring Roads in Walton County become subject 
  to flooding. Low areas along Little Acre and Strickland Roads in 
  Washington County become subject to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

741 
WGUS82 KTAE 281349
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
949 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Florida...
 
  Apalachicola River near Blountstown affecting Calhoun...
  Franklin...Gulf and Liberty Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. 

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC013-037-045-077-281419-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-150428T1800Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.150421T0118Z.150422T2100Z.150428T1130Z.NO/
849 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Apalachicola River near Blountstown.
* At  8:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  6:30 AM Tuesday.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to 14.7 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact: At 15.0 feet: Minor lowland flooding begins. This level is 
  the top of the bank at the marina.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490


$$

201 
WGUS82 KTAE 290131
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Florida...
 
  Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20) affecting Walton County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

FLC131-290201-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-150429T0600Z/
/BRUF1.2.ER.150420T2007Z.150425T0300Z.150428T1800Z.NO/
831 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce (SR 20).
* At  7:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to 12.3 feet by Thursday 
  morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8592 3047 8596 3044 8613 3037 8609 3044 8585 3070 8581


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
506 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [REST OF TODAY]...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL DRYING FOR OUR CWA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE BEFORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS AS A
LARGE MESOSCALE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LA APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST (40-60%).
POPS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK INTO THE LOWER
CHANCE CATEGORY (30%). ENHANCED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY A LOBE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE, IS EXPECTED TO
REACH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COINCIDING WITH
THIS WILL BE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF A 100-120
KNOT UPPER LEVEL (250MB) JET STREAK FROM ALABAMA INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
POSITIVE DCVA AND THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. IN OTHER WORDS, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR VERTICAL MOTION
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EITHER
PERSIST IN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, OR
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTH FLORIDA.

MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE BETWEEN AROUND 09 UTC AND
15 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODES MAY BE MORE CELLULAR, GROWTH INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WITH TIME WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT, POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULDN'T RAIN
FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A GIVEN LOCATION IT SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF AROUND 40-50 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WE INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN, LARGELY CENTERED AROUND WHETHER OR NOT
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROOT QUICKLY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OR WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZING LESS INSTABILITY THAN
WHAT MODELS ARE PROJECTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, LIKELY EITHER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS COULD LEAD TO A LULL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO APPROACH. FORCING WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OR FOCUSED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER WITH CONTINUED MODERATE-STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS AN EML PLUME ARRIVES RELATIVELY IN TACT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN LOWER OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS,
SEVERE WORDING WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, IT SHOULD BRING IN A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS THEREBY ALSO LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR
VISIBILITIES AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER WRT FOG. FOR
NOW, IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ADVERTISED. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND COULD REACH
SCEC LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS
ON SUNDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING
ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE,
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER.
HOWEVER, NONE OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY
OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK
HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   88  70  81  68  84 /  30  30  80  20  30
PANAMA CITY   83  73  78  72  79 /  40  50  80  20  30
DOTHAN        82  68  80  67  82 /  40  70  80  20  30
ALBANY        83  69  81  67  82 /  30  70  80  20  30
VALDOSTA      87  69  84  67  83 /  30  30  80  20  30
CROSS CITY    86  69  84  68  83 /  30  20  70  20  40
APALACHICOLA  84  73  78  73  80 /  40  30  80  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON