Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The previous forecast appears to be on track for tonight.

As a dry cold front moves through the area, winds will become
northerly and increase a bit. Temperatures will drop quickly
tonight between the frontal passage and the loss of solar
heating, dipping into the low to mid 50s across the area, possibly
into the upper 40s in parts of southeast AL and southwest GA.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Sunday] VFR conditions are expected through Saturday.
Winds will shift to the north behind a weak cold front and
generally be 10 to 15 knots on Saturday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [253 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
After a dry cold frontal passage on Saturday morning, much cooler
and drier air will overspread the area. A large surface high
pressure area will build quickly into the Ohio and Tennessee River
Valleys on Saturday evening. With the gradient remaining fairly
tight across the Southeast as the core of the surface anticyclone
remains well to the north, overnight surface winds in the 5 to 10
mph range will make it difficult for temperatures to get
especially cold on Sunday night when the winds pick up more of an
easterly component. Though this will be some of the coolest air so
far this season, have stayed on the warmer side of guidance,
especially with respect to overnight mins. Even so, lows in the
mid to upper 40s should be common for Monday morning.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
A dry and tranquil period is expected to continue into next week.
Model guidance depicts the surface high pressure area remaining
over the Mid Atlantic States through at least Thursday. By mid
week, deep layer ridging should build over the Gulf of Mexico,
helping to return temperatures to above normal values for the end
of October. Low level moisture will be on the increase on
Wednesday as easterly flow intensifies, however any chance for
rain should remain east of the region.

.Marine...
Winds will steadily increase overnight as a cold front move across
the marine area nearing cautionary levels before sunrise. As high
pressure builds across the Tennessee River Valley, a tightening
pressure gradient will lead to a stretch of advisory conditions
starting Saturday night and continuing through Tuesday.

.Fire Weather...
A reinforcing shot of dry air is expected on Saturday with RH likely
to dip below 30% in southeast Alabama and adjacent parts of the
Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia for around 4 hours. Winds
may be sufficiently strong to approach red flag criteria in
southeast Alabama, but at this time the KBDI values are very
marginal for red flag conditions across southeast Alabama. The
overall fire danger appears to be too low locally for any watches or
warnings at this time.

.Hydrology...
With no rain in the forecast for the next 7 days, there are no
flood concerns on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   58  77  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        50  76  47  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        52  77  46  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  79  51  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    54  83  55  76  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  78  56  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD/MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY