High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
426 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A non-tropical surface low pressure system lies over the northern
Gulf waters along the Louisiana coastline. Chances for rain this
afternoon remain focused over our western coastal waters out ahead
of this system. As it moves eastward overnight overnight, we'll see
a sharp increase in chances for rain over our westernmost zones,
particularly after midnight. With heavy cloud cover in place,
temperatures will only dip to the upper 60s-low 70s.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The low pressure system that will impact the short term forecast
will be situated along the Louisiana coast Monday morning and at
that point, the bulk of the precipitation will be west of the CWA.
The event will quickly ramp up though as the upper low lifts into
Mississippi. This will push the better moisture across the CWA (PW
values around 2 inches), increasing the rain chances for Monday
afternoon and in particular the flood threat across the western
portion of the CWA. While the upper low lifts into AL/GA the sfc
low is much slower in doing so and will see the better moisture
slowly push across the CWA through the short term.

The instability with this system is not impressive with MUCAPE
values around 300 J/kg or less. Given this have limited the
mention of thunder to isolated through the short term. The better
low level shear values (40kts) are displaced northward from the
higher MUCAPE values. LL helicity values max out around 400 along
the western coast Monday afternoon. While the better CAPE and
shear do not align completely in this situation and CAPE is on the
lower side, there is still the potential for an isolated wind or
short lived tornado event, mainly along the western coast.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will linger until the front
clears through on Wednesday. The highest chance for rain will be in
the eastern half of the area before returning to a drier pattern on
Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 70s with lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Low clouds around 2500 ft hang over the area
this afternoon, but remain mostly scattered, keeping the TAFs
generally VFR, with broken-overcast upper level clouds above that.
An approaching low pressure system will increase rain chances from
west to east beginning around 06Z.

&&

.Marine...

Strong winds and rough seas are expected across much of the
marine area through the first half of the week as a low pressure
system lifts from the northwestern Gulf northeastward. This will
result in a period of gale conditions across the western portions
of the marine area, generally west of Apalachicola for the Monday
and Monday night timeframe. Given this, have gone ahead and
upgraded the Watch to a Gale Warning. Outside of this area and
time period, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for the
area into Tuesday, except for the far east. As the low pressure
system moves further east, strong winds over the marine area will
begin to subside with headline conditions gradually coming to an
end by Wednesday.

With surf heights reaching six feet tomorrow along the Walton
county coast, have issued a High Surf Advisory for Monday. If the
winds increase at all further east, this may need to be extended
eastward. In addition, extended the Rip Current Statement for
Walton County through Monday. Similarly, this may need to be
extended eastward.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected in the next several days.
Wetting rains appear likely over the entire area from late Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Forecast storm total rainfall amounts are similar to the previous
forecast, however higher compared to yesterday at this time. With
storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches expected across
western Florida into southern AL, have gone ahead and issued a
Flash Flood Watch for that area. Isolated higher amounts of 6 to 9
inches are possible. The greatest risk for flooding will be
generally in the Walton, Bay, Washington and Holmes Counties,
including urban areas along the coast from Panama City to Destin.

Further east and north of the watch area 1 to 3 inches of rain is
possible with isolated higher amounts up to 4 inches. Most of this
rain should is expected to fall between Monday afternoon and
Tuesday morning.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  79  70  76  65 /  20  50  60  60  40
Panama City   72  77  69  77  68 /  60  90  90  50  40
Dothan        68  73  65  74  63 /  60  80  60  60  40
Albany        69  76  66  73  65 /  20  60  60  60  50
Valdosta      68  81  68  77  66 /  10  40  50  50  50
Cross City    67  82  70  81  70 /  10  30  40  50  40
Apalachicola  70  78  71  77  67 /  40  70  80  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning FOR South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
     South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon
     FOR Geneva.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday
     FOR Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday FOR Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday FOR Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     FOR Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     Fl out to 20 Nm-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola
     FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY/FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX