Heat Advisory 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A VERY HOT AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OVER 3000J/KG
WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH A QUIET, ALBEIT WARM,
NIGHT ON TAP.

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAKENING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MEANWHILE, THE AXIS OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE WHILE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PW'S AT OR JUST ABOVE 2.0". DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WIDEPSREAD CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED DUE TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS. THUS, POPS WILL BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR BOTH DAYS. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PUSH HEAT
INDICES ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (>108) MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
MAY EVEN ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN, WE CAN EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS (LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] KTLH AND KVLD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. DAILY INCREASES IN
WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND AN INCREASING CHOP ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSION INDICES IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE STORMS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAINFALL TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINING LOW. NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  97  76  96  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  93  78  93  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
DOTHAN        74  98  75  97  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        75  99  75  98  75 /  20  40  30  30  20
VALDOSTA      74  99  75  98  75 /  30  40  30  30  20
CROSS CITY    74  95  76  93  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  78  90  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/
     TUESDAY FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL
     DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
     COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-
     INLAND DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND JEFFERSON-
     INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-
     MADISON-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     BERRIEN-BROOKS-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-COOK-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LANIER-LEE-LOWNDES-MILLER-MITCHELL-
     QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COFFEE-DALE-
     GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY