Frost Advisory 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Cool high pressure will slide east from Tennessee into the western
Carolinas tonight. This will reinforce the the northeast flow of
dry air into the region. Cirrus clouds will have minimal impact on
temperatures with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s for most
of the region, with lower 70s south and east of Perry. Tonight
looks to be the coolest of the season thus far. Northern areas
will drop to around 40 degrees. Inland areas along and south of
I-10 will see lower to mid 40s with coastal counties dropping into
the lower 50s. The 46-degree low forecast for TLH would be the
coolest reading at the airport since March 30th.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The short term period will be dominated by the influence of deep
ridging, with a surface high centered to the north over the
Carolinas and a low-amplitude ridge aloft. This should maintain
the sunny, dry weather into Monday Night (with the exception of a
few isolated showers offshore from Sunday Night to Monday Night).
A warming trend is also expected, with temperatures quickly
rebounding to above normal levels by Monday.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The extended part of the forecast still looks to feature an
increasingly amplified flow pattern across the CONUS. At the
beginning of the period (Tuesday) this will feature strong ridging
aloft along both coasts, with a trough over the Plains and central
United States. The 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS have converged on
the timing of Plains cyclogenesis, and the subsequent eastward
progression of the associated cold front. For our forecast area,
the timing of the front currently looks to be late on Wednesday or
Wednesday night. With a large component of the tropospheric flow
parallel to the front, some heavy rain will be possible. However,
the front is expected to arrive as the occluding cyclone ejects
NNE into Canada. That should lead to frontolysis and weakening
jets (both in the low levels and aloft), and diminishing trends in
any band of convection along the front. Therefore, the better
chances for heavy rain and stronger storms are currently expected
to remain west of our area.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail under some high
cirrus clouds. Northeast winds today will veer to the east for
Sunday.

&&

.Marine...

Breezy northeast winds will shift to the east by tomorrow and
continue through Tuesday Night or Wednesday in advance of a cold
front. We expect that the winds will warrant at least SCEC
headlines for parts of the coastal waters for the duration of that
time, with a few periods of advisory level winds possible
(including from tonight into Sunday morning). The cold front will
arrive later Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

The only river left in flood was the Choctawhatchee near Bruce,
which is forecast to fall below flood stage on Tuesday.
Otherwise, other sites along the Choctawhatchee, Chipola, and
Apalachicola Rivers were at action stage, but were continuing to
fall after the heavy rain from last week. The QPF through
Wednesday shows less than half an inch across the FL Panhandle and
southeast AL, with most of that occurring on Wednesday as a cold
front approaches. This should allow plenty of time for the crest
waves to work their way downstream in this region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  72  54  78  62 /   0   0  10   0  10
Panama City   51  71  58  77  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        40  67  48  73  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        40  68  49  73  59 /   0   0  10   0  10
Valdosta      44  71  53  77  62 /   0   0  10   0  10
Cross City    50  77  57  82  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  52  72  60  77  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for all zones.

&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT