Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Tallahassee, FL

714 
WGUS72 KTAE 020138
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
738 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

FLC131-020147-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151102T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WALTON FL-
738 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...HOWEVER...FLOODING MAY TAKE ANOTHER FEW
HOURS TO SUBSIDE. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING.

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3099 8604 3077 8604 3064 8639

$$

11-MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low spinning near the
Dallas/Fort Worth area early this afternoon. A deep plume of
moisture was feeding northward from the southern Gulf to the central
Gulf coast region. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure was
analyzed south of the Louisiana coast with a southward trailing
cold front and NEWD extending warm front through central Georgia.

As the upper low moves east and the surface low lifts NE into
southern Alabama tonight, widespread showers with isolated
thunderstorms will overspread our CWA with the heaviest and most
concentrated area of convection generally along and west of the
river through daybreak. Widespread 1 to 2 inch rain amounts have
already fallen over portions of the Florida Panhandle and southeast
corner of Alabama earlier today with a few locations receiving 2 to
3 inches. We believe that this area could see another 1 to 3 inches
of rain in the next 24 hours so a Flash Flood Watch will be in
effect for the afternoon package. The eastern zones will see amounts
generally in the 1 to 2 inch range but will be monitored closely. In
addition to the heavy rain potential, there is a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms mainly for our Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama
zones. The greatest threat will be damaging winds but an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out. With the strong warm air advection
ahead of the front, min temps will be well above seasonal levels in
the lower 70s.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The surface low will continue pushing northeastward from southern
Alabama Monday morning towards the NC-VA coastline through Tuesday
morning, with a northeast-southwest oriented front trailing the low.
Deep layer flow will be from the southwest, keeping moisture
plentiful Monday and Monday night with PW values around 2". Such
rich moisture will mean that heavy rain is possible tomorrow.
Instability will be a limiting factor once again, but we should
continue to advect in a less stable air mass from over the water
ahead of the front, which could help MLCAPE to peak in the 1000-1500
J/kg range. Models are showing 0-6 km shear around 40-50 kts Monday
morning over the western portions of our area, so there will still
be a threat for damaging wind gusts with storms tomorrow.
Additionally, a low level jet will stretch along the front centered
roughly from Destin, FL to Macon, GA, increasing the 0-1 km shear to
around 30 kts along/near this line. With this amount of low level
wind shear, a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
particularly north and west of a line from Panama City to Albany.

The northeastward motion of the storm system will begin to push the
strongest storms north of our area Monday evening. The threat of
heavy rain, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be highest
Monday morning, tapering off into the afternoon and evening hours.
By Tuesday, only our south central Georgia and eastern Florida Big
Bend counties will even have a 20% chance of rain. Highs will be in
the upper 70s-mid 80s and lows will be mostly in the upper 50s-upper
60s.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After the frontal system pulls off to the northeast, we will see
drier conditions, but will stay abnormally warm for November. Highs
will be in the low-mid 80s and lows will be in the 60s. Another
frontal system will skirt towards the area as we head into the
weekend, increasing rain chances to 20-30% towards the end of the
period, which may bring some cooler conditions early next week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday]  Another round of showers and thunderstorms will
approach from the west this afternoon, with highest chances of rain
at ECP and DHN this evening. Expect IFR conditions at all terminals
early morning due to fog and thunderstorms.

&&

.Marine...

As a frontal system lifts northeastward through our area, winds
from the south will increase to around 20 kts overnight over the
western waters. Though the large-scale winds will lower to 15-20
kts Monday morning, seas will still occasionally be up to 8 ft
through around 10 AM ET, so small craft advisory is in effect
through mid-morning Monday. Additionally, winds and seas will be
locally higher during stronger storms. Winds will become lighter
and more easterly by Tuesday ahead of another approaching frontal
system.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With wet conditions expected through Monday, no fire weather issues
are anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...

About 1-3" of rain has fallen over zones north and west of a line
from Panama City, FL to Albany, GA, with a few isolated areas
seeing closer to 4". The highest rainfall totals are expected to
stay northwest of our area, but an additional 1-2" is forecast for
the area, with isolated areas receiving closer to 2-4" more. A
flash flood watch is in effect through Monday afternoon west of
the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola rivers. In terms of river
flooding, a few sites along and west of the Chattahoochee and
Apalachicola rivers may rise to action stage, but no widespread
river flooding is forecast.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  85  65  83  66 /  20  70  20  20  10
Panama City   73  80  64  79  67 /  50  80  10  10  10
Dothan        72  79  59  79  62 /  80  90  10  10  10
Albany        72  83  62  80  64 /  50  80  30  10  20
Valdosta      71  88  69  85  66 /  20  60  20  20  20
Cross City    71  86  70  85  68 /  20  30  20  20  10
Apalachicola  75  80  66  79  68 /  30  70  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ Monday FOR
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday FOR Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
441 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CAIRO              30.91N 84.23W
11/01/2015                   GRADY              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

MCDERMOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
442 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CAIRO              30.91N 84.23W
11/01/2015                   GRADY              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

MCDERMOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
443 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CAIRO              30.91N 84.23W
11/01/2015                   GRADY              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

MCDERMOT