Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Sacramento, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1019 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet weather continues as a Pacific storm system moves
inland. It will bring the first significant snow event of the
season to the High Sierra with widespread rain elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first significant winter storm of the season is moving through
the area, with the Winter Storm Warning on track. Snow is
accumulating in the northern Sierra 6000 feet and above, with over
7 inches currently at Kirkwood. Very slippery roads are present
over high mountain roads. Chain controls are in effect east of
Kingvale on I80, from Twin Bridges east on Highway 50. The
profiler at Sacramento shows snow levels currently at 5800 feet. These
are expected to fall down to around 5000 feet later today, though
with more showery, scattered precipitation in the afternoon as the
main band with the front shifts southward.

Moderate to heavy rain has fallen so far over much of the area,
especially into higher terrain. Rainfall/liquid equivalent amounts
exceeding 2 inches have been observed in the northern Sierra, with
amounts over an inch in the foothills common. The Valley has seen
a few hundredths to around a tenth of inch over the northern
Sacramento Valley, to a third of an inch to an inch over the
southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Radar shows
the main band of precipitation is shifting sound of I80 as the
front shifts southward. Convective showers are developing behind
the front north of I80, and expect to see more of these through
the day. The potential for thunderstorms continues, so could see
some locally heavy rain. This will continue concerns through for
potential burn scar debris flows from recent burns such as the
Butte fire. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

An upper level ridge will keep dry conditions through Saturday.
As the upper ridge amplifies later this week across the West
Coast, high temperatures will be several degrees above normal on
Friday through Saturday. Next chance of rain might be possible on
Sunday for the northern portions of our forecast area. There are
some model differences regarding expected precipitation, as the
ECMWF keeps our area dry on Sunday with trough and precip on
Monday. We went with the middle of the road and kept Monday dry.
IDM/JClapp

&&

.AVIATION...

Weather system bringing widespread showers across Northern
California with VFR/MVFR conditions in Valley except for IFR in
showers. MVFR/IFR conditions continue over the mountains. These
conditions will likely continue today as heavier precipitation
develops as the frontal system moves through later this morning.
Breezy SW winds 20-30kts at 10K MSL, shifting N 15kts after 18Z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E KYBURZ              38.78N 120.23W
11/02/2015  E1.06 INCH       EL DORADO          CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

IDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
933 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PACIFIC HOUSE           38.76N 120.50W
11/02/2015  E1.03 INCH       EL DORADO          CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER LOCATION PACIFIC HOUSE.

&&

IDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
936 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE RANCHO CORDOVA     38.58N 121.28W
11/02/2015  E0.38 INCH       SACRAMENTO         CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER LOCATION RANCHO CORDOVA.

&&

IDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
943 AM PST MON NOV 2 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW KINGVALE          39.32N 120.45W
11/02/2015  E1.85 INCH       NEVADA             CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED A TRACE OF SNOW AT 6,200
            FT. OBSERVER LOCATION KINGVALE.

&&

IDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1218 PM PST MON NOV 2 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E QUINCY              39.92N 120.90W
11/02/2015  E1.52 INCH       PLUMAS             CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER LOCATION QUINCY.

&&

IDM