Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 573

December 27, 20154 counties in Arkansas; 44 parishes in Louisiana; 11 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 27, 2015, 9:57 PM CST for 4 counties in Arkansas; 44 parishes in Louisiana; 11 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 27, 2015, 9:57 PM CST (03:57 UTC)
Expired
Dec 28, 2015, 5:00 AM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 59 counties

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Union County, AR, Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Ascension Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Bienville Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The radar

The Ft Polk radar (KPOE), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

40 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 27, 10:04 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVNatchitoches, Sabine6 hr
Dec 27, 10:18 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBienville, Caddo, Red River, Webster42 min
Dec 27, 10:34 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVClaiborne, Webster26 min
Dec 27, 10:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVDe Soto, Natchitoches, Red River, Sabine30 min
Dec 27, 10:52 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVBienville, Claiborne, Webster53 min
Dec 27, 10:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Lafayette23 min
Dec 27, 11:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBienville, Natchitoches, Red River, Webster35 min
Dec 27, 11:33 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBienville, Grant, Jackson, Lincoln, Natchitoches, Red River and 1 more57 min
Dec 27, 11:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Union78 min
Dec 28, 12:05 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVBienville, Jackson, Lincoln25 min
Dec 28, 12:23 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVGrant, Jackson, Lincoln, Winn4 hr
Dec 28, 12:29 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion61 min
Dec 28, 12:42 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia63 min
Dec 28, 12:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion32 min
Dec 28, 1:23 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANFranklin, Richland67 min
Dec 28, 1:30 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion30 min
Dec 28, 1:35 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXEast Feliciana25 min
Dec 28, 1:41 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge30 min
Dec 28, 1:44 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAshley76 min
Dec 28, 1:44 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia, Tensas61 min
Dec 28, 1:51 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXIberville24 min
Dec 28, 1:55 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXAscension, Assumption, Iberville50 min
Dec 28, 2:02 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXWilkinson28 min
Dec 28, 2:17 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXAscension, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston28 min
Dec 28, 2:21 AM CSTTornado WarningJANAdams, Franklin, Jefferson54 min
Dec 28, 2:22 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXAscension, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston38 min
Dec 28, 2:24 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXAmite, Wilkinson36 min
Dec 28, 2:28 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXLivingston, Saint Helena47 min
Dec 28, 2:35 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXAscension, Assumption, Livingston, Saint James, Saint John the Baptist40 min
Dec 28, 2:35 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXAmite10 min
Dec 28, 2:38 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison, Tensas54 min
Dec 28, 2:38 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXAmite37 min
Dec 28, 2:41 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Saint Helena49 min
Dec 28, 2:49 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAshley, Chicot56 min
Dec 28, 2:53 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXLivingston, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa67 min
Dec 28, 3:03 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXLivingston, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa57 min
Dec 28, 3:06 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXAmite24 min
Dec 28, 3:11 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClaiborne, Copiah, Jefferson64 min
Dec 28, 3:18 AM CSTTornado WarningJANFranklin, Lincoln57 min
Dec 28, 3:30 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHinds, Issaquena, Warren60 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2015-12-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 692 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2015-12-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 360 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
692 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1047 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
360 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
462 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.9
Supercell composite
9.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

223 
WWUS20 KWNS 280355
SEL3  
SPC WW 280355
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-281100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
  MUCH OF LOUISIANA
  WESTERN MISSISSIPPI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
  UNTIL 500 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN
LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.  A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHILE A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN THE LINE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 572. WATCH NUMBER 572 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
955 PM CST. 

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 27, 7:11 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Columbia, Drew, Lafayette and 4 more94 min
Dec 27, 8:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Union91 min
Dec 27, 11:49 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Union86 min
Dec 28, 2:03 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew and 1 more117 min
Dec 28, 2:23 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCLee, Phillips8 hr
Dec 28, 5:14 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Monroe, Phillips and 3 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2015Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2015Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.