Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 571

December 27, 20156 counties in Arkansas; 4 parishes in Louisiana; 48 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 27, 2015, 8:56 AM CST for 6 counties in Arkansas; 4 parishes in Louisiana; 48 counties in Texas. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 27, 2015, 8:56 AM CST (14:56 UTC)
Expired
Dec 27, 2015, 7:00 PM CST
In force
10 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 58 counties

Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Anderson County, TX, Angelina County, TX, Austin County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Colorado County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Houston County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Leon County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Madison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Newton County, TX, Panola County, TX, Polk County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wharton County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 195 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

48 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 27, 9:47 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, Trinity28 min
Dec 27, 10:07 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXAustin, Washington38 min
Dec 27, 10:18 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVCamp, Franklin, Titus, Wood9 hr
Dec 27, 10:34 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVNacogdoches, Rusk, Shelby26 min
Dec 27, 10:55 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningFWDFreestone, Leon, Robertson3 hr
Dec 27, 11:06 AM CSTTornado WarningHGXBrazos, Burleson, Grimes, Washington12 min
Dec 27, 11:07 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVSevier38 min
Dec 27, 11:57 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVSmith, Wood29 min
Dec 27, 12:17 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVLittle River, Sevier12 hr
Dec 27, 12:25 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVSmith9 hr
Dec 27, 12:26 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningFWDLeon3 hr
Dec 27, 12:46 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVHoward12 hr
Dec 27, 1:59 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningFWDAnderson, Freestone, Leon, Robertson6 hr
Dec 27, 2:09 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCamp, Morris, Titus36 min
Dec 27, 2:17 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCamp, Upshur28 min
Dec 27, 2:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, Trinity, Walker30 min
Dec 27, 2:41 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, Madison, Montgomery, Trinity, Walker34 min
Dec 27, 2:45 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVBowie, Morris, Red River, Titus45 min
Dec 27, 2:52 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVSmith, Upshur9 hr
Dec 27, 2:56 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVCherokee6 hr
Dec 27, 3:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, Trinity25 min
Dec 27, 3:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCamp, Franklin, Morris, Titus, Upshur, Wood50 min
Dec 27, 3:15 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVBowie, Morris, Red River45 min
Dec 27, 3:20 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVBowie, Cass, Morris9 hr
Dec 27, 3:24 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVBowie, Camp, Morris, Titus, Upshur51 min
Dec 27, 3:25 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVBowie, Camp, Franklin, Morris, Red River, Titus and 2 more50 min
Dec 27, 3:29 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVHempstead, Lafayette, Nevada31 min
Dec 27, 3:51 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston24 min
Dec 27, 3:52 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedSHVHempstead, Nevada23 min
Dec 27, 3:59 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVColumbia, Lafayette31 min
Dec 27, 4:13 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVHempstead, Nevada32 min
Dec 27, 4:17 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBowie, Cass, Morris, Red River, Titus43 min
Dec 27, 4:35 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVHoward, Sevier40 min
Dec 27, 4:37 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVHarrison, Marion23 min
Dec 27, 4:39 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVGregg, Harrison, Marion, Rusk6 hr
Dec 27, 4:46 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River59 min
Dec 27, 5:01 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedSHVCass, Marion29 min
Dec 27, 5:22 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVMiller23 min
Dec 27, 5:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier46 min
Dec 27, 5:42 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVMiller33 min
Dec 27, 5:57 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVHarrison, Panola, Rusk48 min
Dec 27, 6:07 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVHempstead, Miller6 hr
Dec 27, 6:20 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVNacogdoches6 hr
Dec 27, 6:22 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVHarrison, Marion23 min
Dec 27, 6:30 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVAngelina6 hr
Dec 27, 6:43 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVPanola, Shelby6 hr
Dec 27, 6:46 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVLafayette, Nevada6 hr
Dec 27, 6:47 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVLafayette, Miller28 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2015-12-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 625 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2015-12-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 350 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
625 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
707 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
350 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
426 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.1
Supercell composite
8.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

824 
WWUS20 KWNS 271452
SEL1  
SPC WW 271452
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-272200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
  NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
  EAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 850 AM UNTIL
  400 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY WHILE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS
TO 20 MILES NORTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 26, 7:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Sebastian88 min
Dec 26, 11:27 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson, Logan, Madison and 8 more2 hr
Dec 27, 5:44 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLittle River, Sevier3 hr
Dec 27, 12:45 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Sevier2 hr
Dec 27, 12:47 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Columbia, Drew and 2 more88 min
Dec 27, 2:27 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 7 more63 min
Dec 27, 2:47 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland and 15 more7 hr
Dec 27, 4:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 8 more2 hr
Dec 27, 3:15 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Carroll, East Feliciana, Madison, Saint Helena, Tensas, Washington90 min
Dec 26, 8:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBorden, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more2 hr
Dec 26, 8:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBandera, Crockett, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Kimble and 11 more7 hr
Dec 26, 11:21 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 17 more5 hr
Dec 26, 11:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCConcho, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Kimble, Kinney and 11 more87 min
Dec 27, 3:38 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardeman6 hr
Dec 27, 4:36 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarson, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Gray, Hansford, Hartley and 11 more6 hr
Dec 27, 5:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Cochran, Crane, Culberson, Ector, Gaines and 10 more5 hr
Dec 27, 9:50 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaylor, Childress, Coke, Cottle, Crockett, Dickens and 25 more6 hr
Dec 27, 11:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Bailey, Borden, Castro, Cochran, Crane and 24 more6 hr
Dec 27, 12:04 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Bosque, Clay, Collin, Comanche, Cooke and 24 more2 hr
Dec 27, 3:19 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Houston and 7 more116 min
Dec 27, 3:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Childress, Coke, Coleman and 31 more4 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.