Alert archive / Georgia / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 554

November 18, 201533 counties in Georgia; 10 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 18, 2015, 8:16 PM EST for 33 counties in Georgia; 10 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 18, 2015, 8:16 PM EST (01:16 UTC)
Expired: Nov 19, 2015, 1:03 AM EST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 43 counties

Baldwin County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Burke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Greene County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Hart County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Abbeville County, SC, Aiken County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Union County, SC

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 5%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

1 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 18, 9:07 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Hancock, Taliaferro, Warren	24 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 258 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 900 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 135 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 179 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

680 
WWUS20 KWNS 190113
SEL4  
SPC WW 190113
GAZ000-SCZ000-190800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN GEORGIA
  WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
  UNTIL 300 AM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...CENTRAL GEORGIA LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE STORMS WITHIN THE LINE
MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG IT. A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS ALSO
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY THURSDAY.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ANDERSON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF VIDALIA
GEORGIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 553...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 18, 7:53 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Bleckley, Burke, Columbia, Elbert, Emanuel and 19 more	67 min
Nov 18, 11:42 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bulloch, Burke, Candler, Columbia, Emanuel, Evans and 8 more	93 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2015 Tornado Watches in South Carolina, 2015 Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.