Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 494

August 18, 201539 counties in Illinois; 19 counties in Iowa; 19 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 18, 2015, 1:35 PM CDT for 39 counties in Illinois; 19 counties in Iowa; 19 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2015, 1:35 PM CDT (18:35 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2015, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 77 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Henry County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Washington County, IA, Boone County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cook County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Knox County, IL, Lake County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Marshall County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McHenry County, IL, McLean County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stark County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Will County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Adams County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Walworth County, WI

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

20 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 3:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNWarren23 min
Aug 18, 3:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Knox46 min
Aug 18, 3:14 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNJones31 min
Aug 18, 4:18 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTLivingston42 min
Aug 18, 4:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHenry, Mercer, Rock Island64 min
Aug 18, 4:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Mason42 min
Aug 18, 4:43 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDVNJackson3 hr
Aug 18, 4:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Peoria39 min
Aug 18, 5:07 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedLOTLivingston38 min
Aug 18, 5:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXPeoria, Stark29 min
Aug 18, 5:40 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDVNCarroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Whiteside6 hr
Aug 18, 6:07 PM CDTTornado WarningILXMcLean, Tazewell, Woodford23 min
Aug 18, 6:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, Kendall, LaSalle, Livingston56 min
Aug 18, 7:03 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTOgle, Winnebago7 hr
Aug 18, 7:15 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTWill30 min
Aug 18, 7:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, Kankakee, Kendall, Will39 min
Aug 18, 8:05 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTDuPage25 min
Aug 18, 8:11 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTCook, DuPage, Lake, Will6 hr
Aug 18, 8:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook25 min
Aug 18, 9:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXRacine, Walworth26 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 80 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1257 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
121 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

905 
WWUS20 KWNS 181834
SEL4  
SPC WW 181834
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-WIZ000-190300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN IOWA
  WESTERN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
  FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
  SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP / INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OVER WATCH AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SOME MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMP
DOUGLAS WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PEORIA ILLINOIS.
 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 493...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 12:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass and 33 more116 min
Aug 18, 1:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian and 25 more8 hr
Aug 18, 3:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian and 27 more119 min
Aug 18, 3:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, Henderson, Henry and 16 more2 hr
Aug 18, 6:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay and 41 more115 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2015Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2015Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.