Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 319

June 20, 201532 counties in Illinois; 40 counties in Iowa; 17 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 20, 2015, 3:49 PM CDT for 32 counties in Illinois; 40 counties in Iowa; 17 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2015, 3:49 PM CDT (20:49 UTC)
Expired
Jun 20, 2015, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 89 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Boone County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Scott County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Union County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Cass County, IL, Christian County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Knox County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Adair County, MO, Clark County, MO, Daviess County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

38 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 4:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXJasper, Mahaska, Marion, Poweshiek42 min
Jun 20, 5:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXPoweshiek, Tama32 min
Jun 20, 5:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXMahaska, Marion57 min
Jun 20, 5:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBenton, Iowa27 min
Jun 20, 5:41 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXMahaska6 hr
Jun 20, 5:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBenton, Iowa, Johnson49 min
Jun 20, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXLucas, Mahaska, Marion, Monroe, Wapello45 min
Jun 20, 6:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose, Davis, Monroe, Wapello42 min
Jun 20, 6:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNJefferson, Van Buren50 min
Jun 20, 6:57 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXDavis, Monroe, Wapello6 hr
Jun 20, 6:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose48 min
Jun 20, 6:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNDes Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Lee, Van Buren, Washington61 min
Jun 20, 7:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAppanoose, Wayne23 min
Jun 20, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXMercer, Putnam22 min
Jun 20, 7:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock, Henderson, Mercer, Warren65 min
Jun 20, 7:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXSchuyler34 min
Jun 20, 7:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXPutnam, Schuyler30 min
Jun 20, 7:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock, Henderson, McDonough, Mercer, Warren54 min
Jun 20, 7:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNClark, Scotland38 min
Jun 20, 8:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock, McDonough50 min
Jun 20, 8:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXPutnam, Sullivan49 min
Jun 20, 8:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Knox, Schuyler61 min
Jun 20, 8:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAdair, Putnam, Schuyler18 min
Jun 20, 8:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams67 min
Jun 20, 8:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAdair, Putnam, Schuyler48 min
Jun 20, 8:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBureau, Henry, Mercer32 min
Jun 20, 8:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAdair, Sullivan38 min
Jun 20, 8:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMarshall, Mason, Peoria, Stark, Tazewell, Woodford67 min
Jun 20, 8:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams, Brown65 min
Jun 20, 9:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXCass, Mason, Menard, Morgan, Schuyler54 min
Jun 20, 9:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAdair, Macon, Sullivan47 min
Jun 20, 9:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMenard, Morgan, Sangamon, Scott56 min
Jun 20, 9:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXDeWitt, Logan, McLean, Marshall, Menard, Tazewell and 1 more51 min
Jun 20, 9:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLinn, Macon49 min
Jun 20, 9:57 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXAppanoose, Davis, Wayne6 hr
Jun 20, 10:08 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLSXAdams6 hr
Jun 20, 10:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXChristian, Macon, Sangamon46 min
Jun 20, 10:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMoultrie, Piatt, Shelby59 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-06-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-06-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 29 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
769 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

968 
WWUS20 KWNS 202046
SEL9  
SPC WW 202046
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-210400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA
  WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
  NORTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
  1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS IOWA. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD MERGE INTO
A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
DES MOINES IOWA TO 70 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 317...WW 318...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...GUYER

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 12:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHenderson, Henry, Knox, Mercer, Rock Island, Stark and 2 more117 min
Jun 20, 3:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Cass, Fulton, Hancock, Henderson and 6 more2 hr
Jun 20, 6:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Cass, Fulton, Hancock, Henderson and 11 more57 min
Jun 20, 2:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickinson, Emmet, Lyon, Osceola53 min
Jun 20, 3:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Dickinson, Emmet, Kossuth, Lyon, O'Brien and 3 more3 hr
Jun 20, 5:11 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCerro Gordo, Clay, Emmet, Floyd, Hancock, Humboldt and 5 more64 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2015Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2015Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.