Alert archive / Georgia / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 3

January 4, 201513 counties in Florida; 46 counties in Georgia; 11 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jan 4, 2015, 11:37 AM EST for 13 counties in Florida; 46 counties in Georgia; 11 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 4, 2015, 11:37 AM EST (16:37 UTC)
Expired
Jan 4, 2015, 5:06 PM EST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 70 counties

Baker County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Burke County, GA, Camden County, GA, Candler County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Cook County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Echols County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Glynn County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Screven County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Ware County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC

The radar

The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 4, 11:37 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCDodge, Pulaski23 min
Jan 4, 12:15 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXAtkinson, Coffee, Jeff Davis19 days
Jan 4, 12:34 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBerrien, Brooks, Colquitt, Cook, Lowndes41 min
Jan 4, 12:38 PM ESTTornado WarningFFCEmanuel, Laurens, Treutlen37 min
Jan 4, 12:52 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXAppling, Bacon, Jeff Davis, Pierce, Ware38 min
Jan 4, 1:06 PM ESTTornado WarningFFCEmanuel24 min
Jan 4, 1:21 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSJenkins39 min
Jan 4, 1:57 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCAEBamberg, Barnwell33 min
Jan 4, 2:50 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCHSBryan, Chatham, Effingham, Liberty25 min
Jan 4, 3:03 PM ESTTornado WarningCHSChatham42 min
Jan 4, 3:29 PM ESTTornado WarningCHSBeaufort, Jasper20 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2015-01-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 160 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2015-01-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 166 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
160 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
632 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
166 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
2.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

102 
WWUS20 KWNS 041637
SEL3  
SPC WW 041637
FLZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-042300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTH FLORIDA
  SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
  SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL
  600 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF CROSS CITY
FLORIDA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH FL AND CENTRAL GA
WILL TRACK EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS.  AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 4, 2:19 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEscambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton86 min
Jan 4, 8:48 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson and 4 more87 min
Jan 4, 10:28 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette and 7 more92 min
Jan 4, 1:39 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor96 min
Jan 4, 3:57 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Duval, Nassau and 3 more63 min
Jan 3, 8:54 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChattooga, Dade, Floyd, Haralson, Polk, Walker66 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2015Tornado Watches in Florida, 2015Tornado Watches in South Carolina, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.