Alert archive / Nebraska / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 172

May 15, 20157 counties in Colorado; 23 counties in Nebraska; Goshen County, Laramie County, Wyoming

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 15, 2015, 12:58 PM MDT for 7 counties in Colorado; 23 counties in Nebraska; Goshen County, Laramie County, Wyoming. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2015, 12:58 PM MDT (18:58 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2015, 8:00 PM MDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 32 counties

Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Arthur County, NE, Banner County, NE, Box Butte County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Dawes County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Garden County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Kimball County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Morrill County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Scotts Bluff County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Goshen County, WY, Laramie County, WY

The radar

The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

36 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 1:47 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUWeld28 min
May 15, 1:48 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUWeld27 min
May 15, 1:58 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUAdams, Morgan, Weld37 min
May 15, 2:10 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUWeld50 min
May 15, 2:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSBanner, Cheyenne, Kimball, Morrill61 min
May 15, 2:32 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUMorgan, Weld43 min
May 15, 2:33 PM MDTTornado WarningCYSCheyenne, Morrill42 min
May 15, 2:47 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUWeld43 min
May 15, 2:50 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSGoshen30 min
May 15, 3:18 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSGoshen57 min
May 15, 3:25 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSMorrill65 min
May 15, 3:32 PM MDTTornado WarningCYSGoshen43 min
May 15, 4:00 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedCYSSioux45 min
May 15, 4:11 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFSheridan49 min
May 15, 4:38 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSCheyenne, Morrill67 min
May 15, 4:56 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSBox Butte40 min
May 15, 5:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFSheridan44 min
May 15, 5:11 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFGarden49 min
May 15, 5:17 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSMorrill32 min
May 15, 5:33 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSMorrill57 min
May 15, 5:46 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOULogan, Morgan29 min
May 15, 5:50 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUPhillips25 min
May 15, 6:00 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFGarden, Sheridan45 min
May 15, 6:16 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFGarden44 min
May 15, 6:19 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCYSMorrill56 min
May 15, 6:22 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUPhillips, Sedgwick38 min
May 15, 6:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUPhillips34 min
May 15, 6:45 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUPhillips, Sedgwick45 min
May 15, 6:47 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFGarden, Sheridan43 min
May 15, 7:18 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFDeuel, Garden, Keith42 min
May 15, 7:20 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCherry, Sheridan40 min
May 15, 7:20 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFGarden, Sheridan40 min
May 15, 7:21 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFKeith, Perkins39 min
May 15, 7:40 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedLBFCherry, Sheridan35 min
May 15, 7:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFArthur, Garden, Grant, Keith51 min
May 15, 7:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCherry, Sheridan47 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2015-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 15 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2015-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -28 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
15 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-265 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1417 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-6 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

178 
WWUS20 KWNS 151856
SEL2  
SPC WW 151856
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-160200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHEAST COLORADO
  WESTERN NEBRASKA
  SOUTHEAST WYOMING

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
  800 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE CO...WITH STORMS SPREADING INTO SE WY AND WRN NEB THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
TORRINGTON WYOMING TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MULLEN
NEBRASKA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21025.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 12:14 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLogan, Phillips, Sedgwick2 hr
May 15, 5:28 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLogan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Weld62 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2015Tornado Watches in Colorado, 2015Tornado Watches in Wyoming, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.