Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 14, 2015, 2:23 PM MDT for Lemhi County, Idaho; 24 counties in Montana. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2015, 2:23 PM MDT (20:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 14, 2015, 9:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 25 counties
Lemhi County, ID, Beaverhead County, MT, Blaine County, MT, Broadwater County, MT, Cascade County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Deer Lodge County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Gallatin County, MT, Granite County, MT, Hill County, MT, Jefferson County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, Lake County, MT, Lewis and Clark County, MT, Liberty County, MT, Madison County, MT, Meagher County, MT, Missoula County, MT, Pondera County, MT, Powell County, MT, Ravalli County, MT, Silver Bow County, MT, Teton County, MT, Toole County, MT
The radar
The Missoula radar (KMSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 5%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
2 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 3:38 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MSO | Missoula, Ravalli | 37 min |
| Aug 14, 3:47 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MSO | Mineral, Missoula, Sanders | 28 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 11 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -316 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3444 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 12 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 1:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bannock, Blaine, Cassia, Gooding, Jerome, Lincoln and 4 more | 3 hr |
| Aug 14, 1:35 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lemhi | 2 hr |
| Aug 14, 12:30 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fergus, Garfield, Petroleum, Phillips | 2 hr |
| Aug 14, 4:40 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broadwater, Cascade, Jefferson, Lewis and Clark, Meagher, Powell | 35 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Montana, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Idaho, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.