Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 849

May 30, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2015, 6:48 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2015, 6:48 PM EDT (22:48 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2015, 8:15 PM EDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 30 counties

Aroostook County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Somerset County, ME, Coos County, NH, Clinton County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Warren County, NY, Addison County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT

The radar

The Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 196 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1158 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 159 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 156 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

129 
ACUS11 KWNS 302248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302248 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-310015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 302248Z - 310015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MOSTLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WARM SECTOR FROM
CNTRL THROUGH NERN NY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. STORMS OVER NEW YORK REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND ARE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST /1000-1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS. STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AS THEY
DEVELOP EWD...BUT OCCASIONAL LINE SEGMENTS MAY OCCUR. FARTHER NE
ACROSS WRN AND NRN MAINE...WIND PROFILES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH
40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS REGION IS WEAK BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
BELOW 1000 J/KG AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HAS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CHARACTER OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO WRN MAINE. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE THE SFC
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   47086952 47266842 47036779 46396814 45436931 44127156
            42127688 44637540 44947368 45047154 45687046 47086952

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 2:40 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aroostook, Piscataquis, Somerset	95 min
May 30, 7:23 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cattaraugus, Chautauqua	67 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.