Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 784
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2015, 1:24 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2015, 1:24 PM EDT (17:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 124 counties
Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Bartholomew County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Jay County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Noble County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Union County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Mason County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Adams County, OH, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Highland County, OH, Logan County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Preble County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Warren County, OH, Williams County, OH
The radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -128 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1078 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 65 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
649
ACUS11 KWNS 261725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261724
KYZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-261930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID OH VALLEY VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261724Z - 261930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
MIDWEST. WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER FROM
SRN LOWER MI SWD ACROSS OH AND PORTIONS OF INDIANA INTO KY. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY MOIST /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE...HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUD BREAKS IS ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW
INDICATED DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...A BROAD BELT OF ENHANCED /AROUND 50 KT/ MID LEVEL SSWLYS
ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION. WHILE FLOW IS RELATIVELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. THUS -- EXPECT SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL TO EVOLVE AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. RISK MAY
WARRANT WW ISSUANCE WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR.
..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...
LOT...
LAT...LON 42438590 42408478 41998423 41258369 39998349 38468340
37958609 38168648 41328734 41938673 42438590SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Allen, Bartholomew, Blackford, Dearborn, Decatur and 31 more | 4 hr |
| May 26, 4:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Steuben | 2 hr |
| May 26, 4:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Steuben | 2 hr |
| May 25, 9:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman | 83 min |
| May 26, 12:22 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Allegan, Antrim, Arenac, Benzie, Charlevoix and 33 more | 113 min |
| May 26, 3:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alcona, Allegan, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Barry and 53 more | 6 hr |
| May 26, 5:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashland, Ashtabula, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga and 22 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.