Mesoscale Discussion 751

Issued

May 24, 2015, 8:41 PM CDT (01:41 UTC)

Expired

May 24, 2015, 9:45 PM CDT

In force

64 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

580 
ACUS11 KWNS 250142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250141 
ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL TO FAR
WESTERN KY/TN AND NORTHEAST AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 205...

VALID 250141Z - 250245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MAIN SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 205 SHOULD
REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO
SOUTHWEST IL THROUGH MID-EVENING INCLUDING AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST
OF ST LOUIS. TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TEMPORAL WATCH EXTENSION COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEYOND 03Z.

DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ROUGHLY 30-50 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS AREA AS 830
PM CDT/130Z. THESE ONGOING STORMS AND OTHERS IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
CLUSTERS/BANDS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO/WESTERN KY...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO POSE THE MAIN SEVERE/SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS FAR
EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SRH...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 200
M2/S2 BASED ON ADJUSTED ST LOUIS/PADUCAH WSR-88V VWP DATA. THIS
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME TORNADO
THREAT PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME WHILE SOME
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE PARTICULARLY WITH THE
MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SEGMENTS.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37479054 38609069 39149040 39428908 38598863 37668863
            34788879 34378903 34949008 36789020 37479054

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.