Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 721

May 23, 201515 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2015, 5:38 AM CDT for 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 23, 2015, 5:38 AM CDT (10:38 UTC)
Expired: May 23, 2015, 7:15 AM CDT
In force: 97 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 30 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1289 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 174 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

112 
ACUS11 KWNS 231038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231038 
OKZ000-TXZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 231038Z - 231215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY PARTS OF AN MCS
CROSSING THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT OVERALL LONGEVITY
OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE YIELDED A QLCS FROM
SHERMAN TO PARMER COUNTIES. WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 65-70
MPH REPORTED BY MESONET OBS NEAR THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE
AROUND AMARILLO...THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE GUSTS PENETRATING THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER THAT LIKELY LIES
FROM ABOUT I-40 NWD. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...THIS EWD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURE SHOULD WEAKEN
IN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS LIKELY PRESENT OVER THE
E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. 1-MIN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING SWRN FLANK OF THE
LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36180152 36290089 36210028 35930003 35199999 34400075
            34310121 34250272 34380289 34570287 35030173 35590149
            36180152

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 22, 7:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Crane, Ector, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Ward and 1 more	114 min
May 23, 12:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Deaf Smith, Hockley, Lamb and 6 more	115 min
May 23, 12:17 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baylor, Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cottle, Crosby and 17 more	2 hr
May 23, 1:16 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Armstrong, Bailey, Baylor, Briscoe, Castro and 31 more	6 hr
May 23, 2:02 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Coke, Concho, Crane, Crockett, Ector and 28 more	88 min
May 23, 3:04 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Brewster, Brown, Callahan, Coke and 49 more	6 hr
May 23, 3:44 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Bailey, Baylor, Briscoe, Castro, Childress and 27 more	2 hr
May 23, 5:04 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Bosque, Childress, Clay, Collin and 34 more	2 hr
May 23, 5:30 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Briscoe, Childress, Clay, Collin and 30 more	9 hr
May 23, 6:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Borden and 61 more	114 min
May 23, 6:19 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Blanco and 30 more	9 hr
May 23, 6:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Clay, Cooke, Denton, Grayson, Montague and 2 more	83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.