Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 710
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 20, 2015, 7:39 PM CDT for 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 20, 2015, 7:39 PM CDT (00:39 UTC)
- Expired
- May 20, 2015, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Crockett County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Mason County, TX, Menard County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDLF), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1721 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -28 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1071 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
671
ACUS11 KWNS 210039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210039
TXZ000-210215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...ADJACENT AREAS OF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INTO S CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...
VALID 210039Z - 210215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES WITH STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY...THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING
RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IS REMAINING GENERALLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
INITIAL INTENSE STORMS THAT FORMED NEAR SAN ANGELO. THE LEAD
STRONGER STORMS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO...SUPPORTED
BY A PERSISTENT AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MODEST
INFLOW OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR THAT APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD SUPPORT FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...THROUGH JUNCTION BY AROUND 02Z...PERHAPS AS CLOSE TO SAN
ANTONIO AS KENDALL/BLANCO COUNTIES BY 04Z. IF THIS OCCURS...IT
PROBABLY WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.
..KERR.. 05/21/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30910060 30899987 30679890 30209867 29949943 30360048
30270150 30210335 30800212 30910060SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 10:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 16 more | 83 min |
| May 21, 7:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Starr, Zapata | 67 min |
| May 21, 5:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | El Paso, Hudspeth | 117 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.