Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 643

May 14, 201537 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2015, 6:28 PM CDT for 37 counties in Texas. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2015, 6:28 PM CDT (23:28 UTC)
Expired
May 14, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 37 counties

Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Ector County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Terry County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 5 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 6 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2015-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 14 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2015-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-244 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1461 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
19 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

162 
ACUS11 KWNS 142328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142328 
TXZ000-NMZ000-150100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...

VALID 142328Z - 150100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 171...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SHORT-RANGE  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THIS EVENING.  LLJ IS FORECAST TO RESPOND AND INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND THIS MAY ENCOURAGE AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AFTER DARK.  LATEST RADAR
DATA SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTION FROM WEST OF MAF TO NEAR LBB.  AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES
A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE WITH AN MCS POSSIBLE BY MID
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK.  LARGE HAIL IS THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 05/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   30610357 33860313 33869999 30610053 30610357

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 13, 7:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Foard and 5 more90 min
May 14, 2:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Cochran, Coke, Crane, Crosby and 32 more114 min
May 14, 4:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Bailey, Borden, Briscoe, Castro, Childress and 45 more7 hr
May 14, 5:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Dimmit, Edwards and 16 more117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.