Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 613
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2015, 3:24 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2015, 3:24 PM EDT (19:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2015, 6:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 144 counties
Banks County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Towns County, GA, Union County, GA, White County, GA, Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Orange County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Aiken County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Oconee County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, York County, SC, Anderson County, TN, Blount County, TN, Carter County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Roane County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, Bland County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Henry County, VA, Lee County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wythe County, VA
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 953 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 8 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -10 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -15 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
004
ACUS11 KWNS 111924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111924
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-112200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TN...WRN VA...FAR SRN
WV...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NC...SC...NERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111924Z - 112200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A
BROAD REGION FROM ERN TN AND WRN VA/FAR SRN WV TO PORTIONS OF
COASTAL SRN NC AND COASTAL SC.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE REGIMES:
/1/ A COMPOSITE SEA-BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS
PARTS OF SC AND SRN NC...
/2/ TERRAIN-ENHANCED CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
/3/ BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS A
CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD EDGING INTO MIDDLE TN.
AIR THAT HAS NOT EXPERIENCED SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE PROCESSING THUS
FAR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE MLCINH OWING TO
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
FEATURING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
COLD POOLS LOCALLY AMALGAMATE -- ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL SC FROM LATER
GENERATIONS OF SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE OVERALL SVR RISK.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...
FFC...
LAT...LON 37498060 35417841 34407822 33138022 33438161 34578400
35708495 36668335 37498060SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 4:03 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Montgomery, Robertson, Sumner | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.