Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 608
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2015, 1:32 PM EDT for 35 counties in New York; 4 counties in Pennsylvania; 4 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2015, 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 43 counties
Albany County, NY, Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Essex County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Potter County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Bennington County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1064 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 109 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 96 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
214
ACUS11 KWNS 111733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111732
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-112000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NY AND NRN PA INTO WRN VT/MA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111732Z - 112000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL EXIST A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY
UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NRN NY...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS BEING MINIMIZED.
TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM SWRN NY ALONG SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE/ASCENT PLUMES FROM ANTECEDENT CONVECTION UPSTREAM...AND
INVOF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION...AMIDST AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WITH
BUF...CXX...AND CCX VWPS SAMPLING AROUND 20-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL
WLYS...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR
SMALL...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY MODEST ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR COVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITHOUT STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 42217406 41797566 41487766 41717857 42547833 43737618
44237398 43787255 42847268 42217406SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 7:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua | 64 min |
| May 11, 4:24 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Lawrence, Mercer | 2 hr |
| May 11, 5:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Crawford, Erie and 7 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.