Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 511

May 5, 20155 counties in New Mexico; Parmer County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 5, 2015, 1:01 PM MDT for 5 counties in New Mexico; Parmer County, Texas. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 5, 2015, 1:01 PM MDT (19:01 UTC)
Expired: May 5, 2015, 2:30 PM MDT
In force: 89 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Parmer County, TX

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 247 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 4 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 575 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 167 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 277 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

745 
ACUS11 KWNS 051901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051901 
TXZ000-NMZ000-052030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051901Z - 052030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DRY-SLOT OVER FAR ERN NM AND
WEST TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ERN NM TO THE
WEST OF THE DRY-SLOT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ON THE NWRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 500 TO 750 J/KG. PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS ERN NM AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASE
INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS NEAR -14C/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

..BROYLES/HART.. 05/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34650486 35660389 35870306 35210254 34300280 33380330
            32800367 32660425 32800496 33350537 34310506 34650486

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 5, 1:58 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lea	92 min
May 4, 6:12 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Loving and 10 more	93 min
May 4, 6:53 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Andrews, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock and 12 more	6 hr
May 4, 6:55 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock and 14 more	65 min
May 4, 9:05 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Loving, Martin and 9 more	115 min
May 5, 12:51 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Coke, Concho, Crockett, Fisher, Glasscock, Irion and 12 more	114 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.