Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 310
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 16, 2015, 12:49 PM CDT for 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 16, 2015, 12:49 PM CDT (17:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 16, 2015, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 21 counties
Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 246 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -181 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2122 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 172 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
307
ACUS11 KWNS 161750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161749
TXZ000-161945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161749Z - 161945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD INCLUDE ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STORM
INITIATION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE AS EARLY AS THE 19-21Z. THIS
APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING...FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF AN
INITIAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS LOW.
COINCIDING WITH WITH GRADUAL NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD RETURN OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO
SUPERCELLS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT...BENEATH THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 40-50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK INTO EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN INCREASINGLY BETTER
DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
STALLING/MODIFYING COLD FRONT /WHICH HAS SURGED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS/ COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT ENHANCED TORNADIC
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/16/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35210241 35800215 36240142 36300060 35540050 33970043
33110135 33060218 34040225 35210241SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 1:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 48 more | 116 min |
| Apr 16, 1:48 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hansford and 8 more | 8 hr |
| Apr 16, 2:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Aransas, Austin, Bastrop, Bee, Bell and 81 more | 8 hr |
| Apr 16, 2:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Aransas, Austin, Bastrop, Bee, Bell and 75 more | 63 min |
| Apr 16, 4:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Borden, Brown, Callahan, Childress and 46 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 16, 4:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Briscoe, Brown, Callahan, Castro and 45 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 16, 4:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Cherokee, Gregg, Hardin, Houston, Jasper and 12 more | 91 min |
| Apr 16, 5:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hansford and 7 more | 84 min |
| Apr 16, 5:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Oldham, Parmer | 91 min |
| Apr 16, 6:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Aransas, Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar and 84 more | 86 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.