Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 2016

December 15, 20156 counties in Colorado; Banner County, Cheyenne County, Kimball County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2015, 2:55 AM MST for 6 counties in Colorado; Banner County, Cheyenne County, Kimball County, Nebraska. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 15, 2015, 2:55 AM MST (09:55 UTC)
Expired
Dec 15, 2015, 7:00 AM MST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, Weld County, CO, Banner County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Kimball County, NE

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2015-12-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2015-12-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 216 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1835 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
216 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
248 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

531 
ACUS11 KWNS 150956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150955 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-151400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...SERN WY...NE PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 150955Z - 151400Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE THROUGH 12Z AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT NEWD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NE AND WY.  2 INCHES PER HOUR
RATES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TRENDS SHOW
INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL RATES ALONG THE CO I-25 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE NWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE VICINITY DURING THE
0845-0945Z PERIOD.  A SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL CO WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
INTO NWRN KS THROUGH MIDDAY AS STRENGTHENING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
/DCVA/ OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND A
COLD PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN
NEAR THE WY/NE/CO BORDER REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
EXPERIMENTAL OPRH VALUES INDICATING INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT
JUXTAPOSED THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER SUGGEST HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES
AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS N-CNTRL CO
THROUGH 12Z.  THE EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RATES MAY APPROACH
2 INCHES PER HOUR AS THE HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SWRN
PORTION OF THE NE PANHANDLE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 12/15/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39570518 40440523 40900490 41700361 41690307 41150297
            40270396 39270424 39120481 39570518

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 10:48 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherry, Grant, Keya Paha, Sheridan4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.