Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 2012

December 13, 201535 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 13, 2015, 9:18 AM CST for 35 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 13, 2015, 9:18 AM CST (15:18 UTC)
Expired
Dec 13, 2015, 3:15 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 45 counties

Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2015-12-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 4 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2015-12-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 196 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
4 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
459 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
88 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
198 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

789 
ACUS11 KWNS 131518
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131518 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-132115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...EXTREME SE
CO...WRN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 131518Z - 132115Z

SUMMARY...SNOW AND/OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MCD AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW VISIBILITY AND BLIZZARD-LIKE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

DISCUSSION...A MIX OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...WAS
NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF NE NM/SE CO AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AND PIVOT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KS TODAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 30-34 DEGREE RANGE...BUT
MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MCD AREA IN THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
CONVEYOR BELT DURING THE PRECIPITATION EVENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW...RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER
HOUR...TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO THE OK AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES AND FAR SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
TO RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW...NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH COMMON...AND PERHAPS STRONGER AT TIMES. THIS MAY CREATE
OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY.

..LEITMAN.. 12/13/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   38710166 39400091 39820020 39899937 39529861 38539867
            37499929 36260051 35740124 35580203 35840266 36630284
            38110218 38710166

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 12, 6:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, McCurtain, McIntosh and 5 more96 min
Dec 12, 9:14 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Comanche, Custer, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 4 more2 hr
Dec 12, 11:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCComanche, Cotton, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman35 min
Dec 13, 7:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Galveston88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.