Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 2003

November 30, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 30, 2015, 12:03 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 30, 2015, 12:03 PM CST (18:03 UTC)
Expired: Nov 30, 2015, 6:00 PM CST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 76 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Monona County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sac County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Big Stone County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rock County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Cedar County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Beadle County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brown County, SD, Clark County, SD, Clay County, SD, Codington County, SD, Davison County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1830 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

616 
ACUS11 KWNS 301803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301803 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-010000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SW-SCNTRL MN...NW IA...FAR NE NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 301803Z - 010000Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN SD...SW MN...NE NEB AND NW IA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HRS. SNOWFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1015 MB LOW IN FAR NW
MO. TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE EAST
ACROSS MUCH OF NW IA...SW MN...NE NEB AND ERN SD WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WINTER PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL ALREADY BEING REPORTED
AT SIOUX FALLS SD. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN SD AND SW MN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM 825 TO 650 MB SUGGESTING
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL AGGREGATION WHICH
WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
SRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD INTO NE SD AND SW
MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH UP TO 1
INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

..BROYLES/HART/ROGERS.. 11/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   42119513 41869646 42709737 43789833 44599956 45579908
            45859669 45349453 44139382 42119513

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 30, 6:44 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Audubon, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass, Cherokee and 13 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.