Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 2001
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 29, 2015, 7:52 PM CST for 28 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 29, 2015, 7:52 PM CST (01:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 30, 2015, 1:45 AM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 32 counties
Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Geary County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 540 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 72 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 99 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 217 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
466
ACUS11 KWNS 300153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300152
KSZ000-OKZ000-300745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN OK AND CNTRL/NERN KS
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 300152Z - 300745Z
SUMMARY...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NEWD THROUGH 08Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER
3 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING COVERAGE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/NERN KS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN NWRN
OK/FAR S-CNTRL KS AS OF 0130Z. RAP MESOANALYSIS FROM 01Z DEPICTS THE
SFC WET-BULB-ZERO LINE EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN TX TO ALVA OK...AND
CONTINUING NEWD TO MANHATTAN KS. A NARROW CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
NWRN OK INTO CNTRL/NERN KS SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 08Z PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM AMARILLO TX AND TOPEKA KS. TO THE SE OF THIS
AREA...SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...
SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PTYPE. NW OF THIS REGION THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODED PER THE 00Z SOUNDING
FROM DODGE CITY KS...SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY PTYPE SHOULD TRANSITION
MORE TO SLEET/SLOW WITH NW EXTENT. WHILE MOST MODELS SUGGEST QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH/HR FOR PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/NERN KS AFTER 06Z...AS ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER JET AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
..GLEASON.. 11/30/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 36139929 36199989 36659993 37039992 37989948 39609814
39639713 39079642 38129689 37009830 36139929Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.