Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 2000
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 29, 2015, 4:13 AM CST for 12 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 29, 2015, 4:13 AM CST (10:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 29, 2015, 9:15 AM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Morris County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Reno County, KS, Riley County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 483 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 96 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 250 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
399
ACUS11 KWNS 291014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291013
KSZ000-291515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 291013Z - 291515Z
SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOME IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING /PRE-DAWN/ UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST KS. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL TEND TO RANGE FROM 0.05-0.10
INCH PER 3 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
30-32 F AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 32 F EXTENDED 15 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO JACKSON COUNTIES KS. 06Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS MORNING FROM EAST-WEST ACROSS EASTERN
KS...WITH THIS WARMING ALREADY OCCURRING PER TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES. BY 15Z...THE WET BULB ZERO LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM HARPER
AND SEDGWICK TO WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...AS INDICATED BY 00Z
4-KM WRF NSSL AND NMM...RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND SREF...MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED REFLECTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM NORTHWEST OK INTO ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL KS /AROUND
KP28/. THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS REGION WILL HAVE FREEZING RAIN AS
THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SUB-FREEZING...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF WILL GRADUALLY BECOME RAIN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS THROUGH 15Z.
..PETERS.. 11/29/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37679850 38309786 39249684 39529644 39679592 39559564
38589631 38109690 37909731 37409800 37379851 37679850Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.