Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 2

January 1, 20155 counties in Arkansas; 16 counties in Oklahoma; 19 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2015, 5:55 AM CST for 5 counties in Arkansas; 16 counties in Oklahoma; 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2015, 5:55 AM CST (11:55 UTC)
Expired
Jan 1, 2015, 12:00 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties

Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Coal County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 162 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 97 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
886 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
399 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

711 
ACUS11 KWNS 011156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011155 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-011800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 AM CST THU JAN 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX INTO SERN OK AND WRN AR

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 011155Z - 011800Z

SUMMARY...SPORADIC SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING FROM NRN TX INTO WRN AR...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...MOISTENING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW EXISTING SHOWERS TO EVOLVE NEWD OUT OF TX
AND INTO SERN OK AND WRN AR. HRLY QPF RATES UP TO 0.04 INCHES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED NEAR DALLAS BUT THE FREEZING RAIN ZONE WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE NW.

ALTHOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MIXING MAY OCCUR...EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE NET RESULT A NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE FREEZING LINE. AS SUCH...THE BEST THREAT FOR LIGHT ICING
WILL BE ALONG A MWL TO DTO TO FSM LINE THROUGH MIDDAY.
THEREAFTER...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN.

..JEWELL.. 01/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32989943 33859823 34369721 34879653 35989476 36029379
            35809339 35449342 34969423 34209567 33209694 32309758
            31899822 31969887 32239947 32989943

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 31, 9:45 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 23 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.