Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 1921
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 2, 2015, 4:37 PM EST for 8 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 2, 2015, 4:37 PM EST (21:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 2, 2015, 5:30 PM EST
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Evans County, GA, Long County, GA, Tattnall County, GA
The radar
The Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 140 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 666 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 108 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 143 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
604 ACUS11 KWNS 022137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022137 SCZ000-GAZ000-022230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CST MON NOV 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 022137Z - 022230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LOW FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 530. AN ISOLD THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE BEYOND THE ERN BOUND OF THE TORNADO WATCH. DISCUSSION...THE PAST FEW HOURS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER PARTS OF SERN GA AND THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY SHOW A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE GA COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK SURFACE WINDS /AOB 5 KT/ AT SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES DOWNSTREAM OF THE S-CNTRL GA ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SHEAR NEWD AND WEAKEN. ADEQUATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40+ KT/ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURE PERHAPS EXITING THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ACT TO DECREASE INSTABILITY AND THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 11/02/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 32528209 32798145 31988106 31718180 31898218 32528209
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 6:46 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Early, Quitman | 2 hr |
| Nov 2, 11:21 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baker, Dougherty, Miller, Mitchell, Seminole | 54 min |
| Nov 2, 1:15 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Atkinson, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Bibb, Bleckley and 40 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Bibb, Bleckley, Coffee and 33 more | 84 min |
| Nov 2, 6:05 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Berrien, Bryan, Bulloch and 12 more | 115 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.