Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 1113
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 22, 2015, 3:10 AM CDT for 22 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 22, 2015, 3:10 AM CDT (08:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 22, 2015, 4:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 22 counties
Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Howard County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Jones County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Linn County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Wright County, IA
The radar
The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 39 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -235 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1911 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -25 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 203 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
786
ACUS11 KWNS 220810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220810
IAZ000-220945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 220810Z - 220945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PERSIST ACROSS NERN IA WITH SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE. ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA IS
SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM ABOUT
SHL SEWD TO CID WITH THE 70 DEG ISODROSOTHERM ACTING AS A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE FRONT/S POSITION. NERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FOCUSED INTO THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE ASSOCIATED WAA FORCING THE
INCREASED TSTM ACTIVITY. WITH THE CONTINUED FOCUS OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST WITH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KT PER
MESOANALYSIS/. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT
ARE MODEST BUT SHOULD STILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INSTABILITY.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATED MUCAPE AROUND 15OO J/KG NEAR THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY. AS SUCH...SOME SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MARGINAL AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/22/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42379348 42799475 43289453 43439242 43089137 42109059
41879161 42379348SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2:25 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Dickinson, Lyon, O'Brien, Osceola, Sioux | 6 hr |
| Jun 22, 4:53 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allamakee, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clay, Clayton, Dickinson and 15 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 22, 5:33 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Butler, Cerro Gordo, Emmet and 15 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 22, 6:03 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allamakee, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette, Floyd, Howard and 2 more | 4 hr |
| Jun 22, 7:42 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan and 36 more | 93 min |
| Jun 22, 8:08 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque and 5 more | 4 hr |
| Jun 22, 9:39 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Muscatine, Scott | 3 hr |
| Jun 22, 1:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Boone and 42 more | 113 min |
| Jun 22, 3:56 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Appanoose, Benton, Cedar, Clinton, Davis, Des Moines and 23 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 22, 6:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appanoose, Cedar, Davis, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa and 17 more | 67 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.