Mesoscale Discussion 1013

Issued

Jun 14, 2015, 5:01 AM CDT (10:01 UTC)

Expired

Jun 14, 2015, 7:30 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Dickey County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Brown County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Potter County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

840 
ACUS11 KWNS 141001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141001 
SDZ000-NDZ000-141230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 141001Z - 141230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED...LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS IS
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD AND SWRN ND...WITH LEADING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS RELATED TO WARM ADVECTION FOCUSED EWD ACROSS
OTHER PARTS OF SRN ND. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD/ERN WY...WHERE 2-HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF AROUND 1.5-2.5 MB ARE EVIDENT. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD
EXHIBIT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS IT OVERTAKES MODESTLY GREATER
THETA-E WITHIN AND E OF A NE/SW-ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE APPROXIMATELY
BISECTING SD AND EXTENDING INTO NWRN MN. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE
PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SFC FRONT...WHERE GREATER MUCAPE EXISTS. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND
40-50 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY ABR...UDX...AND BIS VWPS
SUPPORTS SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR MCS MAINTENANCE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION OF THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED STABLE LAYER
SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THE RESIDUAL MIXED LAYER EVOLVING FROM YESTERDAY/S DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT SAMPLED BY RAP/ABR 00Z RAOBS MAY
CONTINUE TO OFFER SUFFICIENT DCAPE FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. AN
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE
MCS PROGRESSES EWD AND POTENTIALLY EXHIBITS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
LEADING SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER E IN ND MAY ALSO SUPPORT STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE LARGER-SCALE COLD-POOL ENHANCEMENT TO SFC
WIND GUSTS.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   43810371 44440226 45970080 46609860 46269755 44069997
            43490298 43810371

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.