Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 1007
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2015, 3:51 PM CDT for 12 counties in Arkansas; 49 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 13, 2015, 3:51 PM CDT (20:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 13, 2015, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 61 counties
Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Carter County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 890 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 613 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 125 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 134 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 1.7
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
906
ACUS11 KWNS 132051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132051
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-132215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL MO AND NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132051Z - 132215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MO/NRN AR...LIKELY DUE TO THE GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF AN IMPULSE TO THE NW...AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL MCV
LIFTING NE FROM OK. MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG HAS
MATERIALIZED...RESULTING FROM AMPLE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 14-15 G PER KG/. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST/UNI-DIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL
FLOW /DEPICTED BY THE KSGF VWP/ WILL LIKELY FURTHER THE TREND OF
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS...LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. WHILE
FLOW INCREASES SOME FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING MAY
PRECLUDE A GREATER THREAT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE MCD AREA.
THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
NONETHELESS...CONSIDERING THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
STORM MERGERS/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON 35669249 35559351 35729414 37659399 38709342 39419196
38819028 37519062 36039135 35669249SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Lewis, Marion, Pike, Ralls | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.