Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

515 
WGUS75 KSLC 200251
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
851 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

UTC025-200445-
/O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-151020T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE UT-
851 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANE COUNTY...

AT 847 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG
WAHWEAP CREEK...BUCKSKIN GULCH AND THE PARIA RIVER. THIS
RAIN...COMBINED WITH HEAVIER RAIN EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING ALONG THESE DRAINAGES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BIG WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

&&

LAT...LON 3726 11172 3700 11147 3700 11191 3712 11195
      3719 11194

$$

LC

492 
WGUS75 KSLC 200441
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1041 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

UTC025-200445-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-151020T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE UT-
1041 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 1045 PM MDT...

PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANE
COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. 

ALTHOUGH RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...CONTINUING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ALONG WAHWEAP CREEK...THE PARIA
RIVER...AND BUCKSKIN GULCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3726 11172 3700 11147 3700 11191 3712 11195
      3719 11194

$$

LC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING
AND DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE
WESTERN CONUS. TWO PRIMARY FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER
SCALE TROUGH ARE OF NOTE...THE FIRST BEING A CIRCULATION LIFTING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NV WITH AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK OVER NORTHWEST
UT...AND THE SECOND BEING A JET AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA
DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.

THE FORMER FEATURE COUPLED WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND MODEST INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH CONNECTION HAS REMAINED MORE ISOLATED THUS FAR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
VALLEYS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SECONDARY UPSTREAM FEATURE CURRENTLY DIGGING ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST ACROSS AZ
WEDNESDAY. A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY...DELINEATING BETWEEN LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND A MUCH DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE AZ LOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UT DURING THIS
TIME...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR THE CANYONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...THE AZ LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO EJECT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ASSIST FROM A NRN BRANCH TROF CROSSING THE NRN
ROCKIES. THIS TROF WEAKLY SPLITS AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH THE PIECE
CROSSING THE NRN GREAT BASIN PROVIDING THE KICK TO EJECT THE AZ
LOW. MODELS DO SHOW SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THAT
WOULD KEEP A THREAT OF PRECIP GOING INTO FRI.

UPSTREAM RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN FRI AFTN ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT.
THIS RIDGE REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK
WAVES FLATTENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES BUT EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN
CLOUDS FROM THESE WAVE.

TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINTAINING A SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SWITCH COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 23Z. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL WITH SUB 6000FT AGL CIGS AND BRIEF ERRATIC
GUSTS...MOST LIKELY IN THE 22Z-03Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SEAMAN/WILENSKY/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
521 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-201130-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
521 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. THE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FLOOD PRONE AREAS. COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTLOOK
AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE STORM AND
CONCENTRATE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL RECEIVE ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL ROAD TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX