Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

134 
WGUS75 KSLC 190438
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1038 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

UTC025-053-190600-
/O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-151019T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE UT-WASHINGTON UT-
1038 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL KANE AND EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1036 PM MDT...FLASH FLOODING FROM EARLIER RUNOFF CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KANE AND EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

SLOT CANYONS SUCH AS PINE CREEK...CLEAR CREEK...KEYHOLE CANYON AND
OTHER AREA SLOT CANYONS AS WELL AS THE PORTION OF THE EAST FORK OF
THE VIRGIN RIVER WITHIN ZION NATIONAL PARK WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3724 11286 3718 11286 3715 11299 3724 11295

$$

CRK

564 
WGUS75 KSLC 190553
FFSSLC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1153 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

UTC025-053-190602-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FF.W.0068.000000T0000Z-151019T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE UT-WASHINGTON UT-
1153 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL KANE AND EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1200 AM MDT...

MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANE AND EAST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CAUSE
ENHANCED RUNOFF IN THE AREA...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
HAS DIMINISHED.

LAT...LON 3724 11286 3718 11286 3715 11299 3724 11295

$$

CRK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
235 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE WEEK. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
50-80KT CYCLONIC JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN. GOES/RAP/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.33" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.75"-1.00"
MOST VALLEYS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
UTAH. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE WARM CLOUD DEPTH GREATER THAN 6FKT ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY DURING DESTABILIZATION
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION WILL BE DEEPER AND MORE VIGOROUS TODAY GIVEN APPROACHING
DYNAMICS (DIFFLUENCE ALOFT/JET SUPPORT) AND BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWN
BY SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES AT OR ABOVE 35KTS
TODAY SO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

REINFORCING ENERGY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH TOMORROW WHICH WILL START THE PROCESS OF A HARD
SPLIT WITH A CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA.
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH TOMORROW
STARTING TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES UP THAT WAY...ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY.

WITH COOLING...COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION BUT IT
WILL STILL BE QUITE MOIST. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BECOME
MORE ISOLATED TOMORROW AND FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH.

DEPENDING ON DETAILS REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARIZONA CLOSED
LOW FEATURE...WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. ALSO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIALLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE/CANYON WINDS ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD THE GRADIENT SET UP AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WED)...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NRN END OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE EC SHOWS A MORE CONCENTRIC FEATURE WHILE THE GFS HAS A LOBE
EXTENDING NORTH UP THROUGH MOST OF UT. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD
IMPLY THE THREAT OF PRECIP WOULD EXTEND FARTHER NORTH ON WED WHILE
THE EC WOULD KEEP IT MORE OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING INTO THU BEFORE
THE LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST AND RIDGING SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THU NIGHT/FRI. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EC IDEAS AS IT
HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOSED LOWS
BETTER THAN THE GFS SINCE THE END OF SEPTEMBER.

TEMPERATURE REBOUND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE RIDGE AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON SUN AS A WEAK WAVE
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH BUT EXPECT THE CWA TO STAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL INTO
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 21-23Z CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 04-05Z. THESE
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE TERMINAL WITH A
CHANCE OF CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET AGL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR UTZ016-019>021-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
554 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-191200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
554 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE OUTLOOK
AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE STORM AND
CONCENTRATE OVER THE SOUTHERN THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH MIDWEEK.
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL RECEIVE ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL ROAD TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
322 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     WENDOVER                40.74N 114.02W
10/18/2015  M58 MPH          TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            WENDOVER AIRPORT AWOS

&&

LC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
452 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ZION NP                 37.22N 112.99W
10/18/2015                   WASHINGTON         UT   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            FLASH FLOODING IN SPRY...PINE AND OTHER ASSORTED CANYONS
            ON THE EAST SIDE OF ZION NATIONAL PARK.

&&

LC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
554 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

UTZ001-002-005-007-190030-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION UT-GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS UT-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH UT-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT UT-
554 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WEBER...NORTHEASTERN
BOX ELDER AND WESTERN CACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 552 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT
SALT LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOGAN...BRIGHAM CITY...TREMONTON...SNOWVILLE...CACHE...PERRY...
WELLSVILLE...WILLARD...BEAR RIVER CITY...MANTUA...CORINNE...
CLARKSTON...TRENTON...PLYMOUTH...HOWELL...BENSON...SOUTH WILLARD...
RIVERSIDE...PETER AND GARLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 11322 4200 11211 4189 11191 4173 11187
      4137 11194 4124 11256 4151 11253 4167 11265
      4179 11280 4194 11319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 246DEG 47KT 4195 11301 4183 11270 4171 11255
4155 11243 4137 11244

LC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
617 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 N LAKESIDE            41.33N 112.86W
10/18/2015  M68 MPH          BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

            GUNNISON ISLAND MESONET SITE.

&&

LC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
631 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

UTZ016-019-518-190100-
UTAH'S DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK UT-SOUTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS UT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH UT-
631 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

AT 631 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES WEST OF SANTA CLARA...OR 20 MILES SOUTH
OF BEAVER DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAVER DAM...ENTERPRISE...MOTOQUA...GUNLOCK...GOLDSTRIKE AND VEYO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 11405 3760 11405 3760 11364 3701 11376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 240DEG 33KT 3722 11396

MPS