Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
651 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for thunderstorms, or the potential for thunderstorm
development, to continue across much of West Central Texas until
around midnight tonight. Thunderstorms continue this evening,
mainly across the Heartland north of the Brady terminal and across
the Big Country southwest of the Abilene terminal. Thunderstorms
southwest of the Abilene terminal may be at that terminal within
the next hour or two. Thus, included a tempo group in that
terminal for thunderstorms between 01Z and 02Z. Otherwise, there
is currently no radar-indicated threat to any of the other
terminals. Beyond midnight, the thunderstorm threat will
significantly diminish, and showers will be the primary rain
producer. A cold front will bring winds from the northwest for
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

Short Term...

(Tonight and Saturday)

..Heavy rain and strong/severe thunderstorms possible through
tonight...

Currently, a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to
work its way across the CWA this afternoon. Additional isolated
development is occurring west of our area over the Stockton Plateau.
The main upper level low remains west of our area, centered over
southwestern New Mexico. A strong vorticity maximum is rotating
around the southern end of the low this afternoon, and will impact
our area tonight.

All models take the upper level low a little farther south tonight
as it moves east. A slow-moving warm front stretches across the area
from just west of KSOA, arcing northeast to between KBBD and KBWD.
In addition, models hint at a weak surface trough/low developing
near the western end of this front, acting as a focus for new
thunderstorm development after 00Z. This would put the best chances
for new thunderstorms tonight across our southern and southeastern
counties, generally east of a Coleman to Sonora line. However, there
will still be a chance for at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms farther west, mainly through midnight for the rest of
the area.

With precipitable water values at 1" to 1.5", there will a
possibility of localized flash flooding, especially where any
training occurs, which is most likely for areas from Junction to
Brady to Brownwood and east. In addition to the flooding threat,
severe thunderstorms will also be possible, especially near the
warm front and any other mesoscale boundaries that form. The main
hazards will be strong winds, a marginal large hail threat, and an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

As drier air moves in from the west overnight, the rain should move
eastward during the overnight hours, so have lesser chances after
06Z tonight for western areas.

Most of the rain should be moving out of the area by Saturday
morning. There may be a few very light showers with the low as it
comes across, but these are expected to be very isolated and very
light with minimal impact, so will not mention in the forecast. A
cold front will move through tomorrow, so we will be slightly cooler
across most areas tomorrow with northwest winds.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday-Tuesday)

A dry, mild weather pattern is on tap Saturday through Tuesday as
the upper low departs to the east and a weak shortwave ridge of
high pressure builds across West Central Texas. Look for partly
cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s through the
period. The warmest day should be on Monday, when the weak upper
level ridge is overhead and the surface winds go light. We may
see a few places warm into the lower 80s.

(Wed-Fri)
Another deep upper trough is progged by models to dig across Southern
California by Wednesday and then lift northeast into the Central
Plains by Thursday night. Meanwhile, a large surface high
pressure system over the Mid Atlantic States will enable plenty
of gulf moisture to pump into West Central Texas Wednesday through
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms could form across the area Wed-
Thursday as a warm, moist airmass coupled with upslope flow
develops across West Central Texas. Precipitation may also form
along the pre-frontal trough/frontal boundary on Friday as the
upper level shortwave trough moves into Minnesota. Have inserted
chance Pops for next Wed-Fri.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 54  66  47  75 /  50  10   5   0
San Angelo 	 53  72  47  79 /  30  10   0   0
Junction 	 56  76  48  78 /  80  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
337 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-312045-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
337 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA ALONG AND
EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF A BROWNWOOD...TO
MENARD...TO SONORA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ054-310015-
NOLAN TX-
624 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NOLAN COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

AT 622 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER BLACKWELL...WITH ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED
NEAR SILVER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HYLTON AROUND 645 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3226 10052 3225 10016 3209 10016 3209 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 229DEG 18KT 3209 10032

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ139-140-310015-
COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
640 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BROWN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 640 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
TRICKHAM...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTA ANNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BROWNWOOD AROUND 710 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3157 9922 3161 9924 3174 9905 3164 9898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 235DEG 23KT 3160 9920

MD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ127-310030-
TAYLOR TX-
655 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

AT 654 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HAPPY VALLEY...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLACKWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VIEW AROUND 720 PM CDT.
  BUFFALO GAP AROUND 725 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CAMP TONKAWA AND LAKE
ABILENE.

LAT...LON 3229 10014 3241 9991 3228 9973 3211 10004
      3211 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 230DEG 33KT 3217 10010

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
707 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ140-310030-
BROWN TX-
707 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

AT 707 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EARLY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLANKET AROUND 730 PM CDT.

PEOPLE NEAR EARLY LONGHORN STADIUM...AND BLANKET SWITZER FIELD SHOULD
SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 3165 9900 3171 9903 3186 9879 3188 9879
      3182 9874 3170 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 251DEG 24KT 3171 9893

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
711 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ076-310045-
CROCKETT TX-
711 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 711 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OZONA TO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PANDALE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OZONA AROUND 745 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE THE INTERSECTION OF
RANCH ROAD 2083 AND HIGHWAY 405 AND THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 163
AND RANCH ROAD 1973.

LAT...LON 3030 10174 3033 10174 3034 10172 3034 10166
      3036 10166 3038 10169 3070 10137 3073 10110
      3048 10110 3030 10144
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 236DEG 28KT 3052 10137 3028 10164

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
721 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ065-066-310045-
COKE TX-RUNNELS TX-
721 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RUNNELS AND EAST
CENTRAL COKE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BRONTE...OR 13 MILES EAST OF ROBERT LEE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAVERICK AROUND 730 PM CDT.
  NORTON AROUND 740 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE WILMETH.

LAT...LON 3183 10025 3195 10030 3205 9989 3185 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 268DEG 21KT 3187 10026

04