Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
814 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated for newly issued Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #123, which covers our counties roughly along and south of
an Eldorado to Coleman to Brownwood line. Tise Watch is in effect
until 2 AM CDT. Pacific front is advancing east across some of
our western and southwestern counties. This front will continue
moving east into a more unstable environment, intersecting with
other surface boundaries. With quite favorable vertical shear, the
setup favors additional thunderstorm development.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

UPDATE...
The current Tornado Watch # 119 has been extended south to include
Mcculloch and San Saba Counties. This Tornado Watch is in effect
until 8 PM. Another Tornado Watch has just been issued by the
Storm Prediction Center, for the area just east of our Big Country
and Heartland Counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

.There is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
   and evening...

An upper low has closed over New Mexico early this afternoon and
will move east over the Panhandle through tonight. At the surface,
rich low level moisture has returned to most of West Central
Texas with a dryline moving slowly into the western tier of
counties.

Expect severe storms for the remainder of the afternoon and
evening as the dryline advances to the east. The best chance for
severe weather continues to be east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo
to Sonora line. The main hazards will be a few tornadoes, large
hail(larger than goofball size) and damaging winds.

Expecting a dry slot enveloping our southwestern CWA tomorrow with
a chance of thunderstorms continuing over the remainder of the
CWA.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s. Highs tomorrow will be in the
low to mid 70s over the northern half of the area and upper 70s
to low 80s over the southern half of the area as a frontal
boundary sags south through the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

The upper-level cyclone will be moving slowly east across the
southern Plains Monday night through Tuesday. Cold temps aloft
associated with this feature will support a continued chance of
showers and thunderstorms, despite relatively weak synoptic scale
forcing for ascent over the region. Any precipitation that
develops Monday night or Tuesday should remain light, with total
precipitation amounts of less than 1/10".

Widespread cloud cover and low-level cold advection on Tuesday
will keep afternoon temperatures in the 60s areawide. With skies
clearing and winds diminishing Tuesday night, overnight lows will
be on the cool side. Wednesday morning low temperatures will be in
the 40s across most of the area, although a few low-lying areas
and river valleys could briefly touch the upper 30s. Deep-layer
northerly flow is progged to develop on the backside of the
departing shortwave trough, maintaining well below normal
temperatures through Wednesday.

Benign weather conditions are expected for the latter half of the
work-week as mid-level ridging builds over the southwest CONUS,
spreading into the Plains by Thursday. This will result in dry
weather and a warming trend. Expect afternoon temperatures in the
lower 80s by Friday. Quiet weather will continue on Saturday, with
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday as the
ridge breaks down in advance of an approaching shortwave trough.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 56  74  49  63  45 /  40  30  40  20   5
San Angelo 	 54  80  50  65  44 /  20  10  30  20   5
Junction 	 53  82  55  67  43 /  50  10  10  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
128 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-271830-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
128 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE...ALONG AND EAST OF A SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA
LINE. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS AND MOST INTENSE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...INCLUDING THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING A FEW
TORNADOES...HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT FOR ANY STORM AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

15

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
742 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             2 N ANSON               32.79N  99.90W
04/26/2015  E1.75 INCH       JONES              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED AT THE US 277/US 83
            INTERSECTION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500231

DOLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
812 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXZ071-072-077-270215-
IRION TX-SCHLEICHER TX-TOM GREEN TX-
812 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
IRION...SCHLEICHER AND TOM GREEN COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 810 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF US-190 NEAR THE CROCKETT-SUTTON COUNTY LINE...OR ABOUT 17 MILES
WEST OF ELDORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOSSED AROUND...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 1828 AND RANCH ROAD 915 BY 830 PM
  CDT
  CHRISTOVAL BY 855 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3108 10096 3109 10097 3121 10098 3140 10011
      3090 10012 3078 10096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 246DEG 31KT 3095 10086

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
822 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXZ072-270145-
TOM GREEN TX-
822 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR TOM
GREEN COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS

AT 821 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TWIN BUTTES RESERVOIR...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN
ANGELO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SAN ANGELO...O.C. FISHER RESERVOIR AND SAN ANGELO STATE PARK BY 830
  PM CDT
  GOODFELLOW AIR FORCE BASE AND WALL BY 835 PM CDT
  HARRIET AND VERIBEST BY 840 PM CDT
  MERETA BY 845 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3124 10069 3147 10069 3169 10024 3158 10024
      3158 10011 3136 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 234DEG 54KT 3135 10057

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
843 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXZ077-078-270215-
SCHLEICHER TX-SUTTON TX-
843 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
SCHLEICHER AND SUTTON COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL

AT 839 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
US-277 NEAR THE SUTTON-SCHLEICHER COUNTY LINE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ELDORADO...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THE INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND RANCH ROAD 2084 BY 905 PM CDT
  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
  AND SONORA IN SUTTON COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 377 AND 428.

LAT...LON 3036 10096 3079 10095 3091 10012 3044 10012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 269DEG 39KT 3077 10061