Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
133 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

...There is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
   and evening...

An upper low has closed over New Mexico early this afternoon and
will move east over the Panhandle through tonight. At the surface,
rich low level moisture has returned to most of West Central
Texas with a dryline moving slowly into the western tier of
counties.

Expect severe storms for the remainder of the afternoon and
evening as the dryline advances to the east. The best chance for
severe weather continues to be east of a Sweetwater to San Angelo
to Sonora line. The main hazards will be a few tornadoes, large
hail(larger than goofball size) and damaging winds.

Expecting a dry slot enveloping our southwestern CWA tomorrow with
a chance of thunderstorms continuing over the remainder of the
CWA.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s. Highs tomorrow will be in the
low to mid 70s over the northern half of the area and upper 70s
to low 80s over the southern half of the area as a frontal
boundary sags south through the area.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

The upper-level cyclone will be moving slowly east across the
southern Plains Monday night through Tuesday. Cold temps aloft
associated with this feature will support a continued chance of
showers and thunderstorms, despite relatively weak synoptic scale
forcing for ascent over the region. Any precipitation that
develops Monday night or Tuesday should remain light, with total
precipitation amounts of less than 1/10".

Widespread cloud cover and low-level cold advection on Tuesday
will keep afternoon temperatures in the 60s areawide. With skies
clearing and winds diminishing Tuesday night, overnight lows will
be on the cool side. Wednesday morning low temperatures will be in
the 40s across most of the area, although a few low-lying areas
and river valleys could briefly touch the upper 30s. Deep-layer
northerly flow is progged to develop on the backside of the
departing shortwave trough, maintaining well below normal
temperatures through Wednesday.

Benign weather conditions are expected for the latter half of the
work-week as mid-level ridging builds over the southwest CONUS,
spreading into the Plains by Thursday. This will result in dry
weather and a warming trend. Expect afternoon temperatures in the
lower 80s by Friday. Quiet weather will continue on Saturday, with
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday as the
ridge breaks down in advance of an approaching shortwave trough.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 56  74  49  63  45 /  40  30  40  20   5
San Angelo 	 54  80  50  65  44 /  20  10  30  20   5
Junction 	 53  82  55  67  43 /  50  10  10  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

15/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
128 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-271830-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
128 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE...ALONG AND EAST OF A SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA
LINE. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS AND MOST INTENSE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...INCLUDING THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING A FEW
TORNADOES...HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT FOR ANY STORM AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

15

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