Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
310 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

...A Tornado Watch is in effect through 10 PM this evening...

Currently, an upper level trough located over New Mexico is moving
east toward the southern plains with a 120+ knot jet at 250mb, and
60+ knots at 500mb, creating a highly sheared environment over west
central Texas. This has resulted in 0-6 km shear values around 60
knots. In the low levels, CAPE values were exceeding 1500 J/kg over
the southern 2/3 of the CWA, with SRH values from surface to 1 km of
greater than 200 m2/s2 downstream of the currently developing
storms. Storm motions are expected to range from 40 to 50 mph so in
addition to large hail, severe strength winds will also be a
considerable threat. Thunderstorms that have already begun
developing are rapidly intensifying to severe levels within this
environment. This trend is expected to continue through the evening
hours as the entire scattered line of storms moves to the east.
These storms will continue to rapidly intensify with the potential
of producing tornadoes the farther east they move. As the event
continues to develop, a line of embedded severe storms may develop
during the evening hours, before the entire line moves east of the
CWA.

For Saturday, clear and dry conditions are expected behind the
upper level trough moving through the area tonight. We will have
breezy west winds across the area, and warm temperatures with
highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The next upper level low/trough is forecast to be across the Desert
Southwest on Sunday, then eventually track across the South Plains
late Monday into Tuesday. As this upper level system approaches,
showers and thunderstorms will increase across West Central Texas,
especially across our northern/eastern counties. The overall
synoptic pattern between models is very similar. The main difference
is that the GFS continues to be more aggressive in moving the
dryline into our eastern counties, while the ECMWF is farther west
with the position of the dryline during the afternoon/evening. The
GFS solution would favor keeping the bulk of the precipitation
Sunday and Sunday night to the east of West Central Texas, while the
ECMWF solution would result in showers and thunderstorms across a
large part of the area. For now, very little change was made to the
forecast, which is a conservative middle ground between the drier
GFS and more optimistic ECMWF. Strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible, given an unstable atmosphere and 0-6km bulk shear
values of 35 to 50 knots. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to
upper 80s.

As the upper level low moves across the South Plains, the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be across the Big Country
and Heartland. In the meantime, a strong cold front will drop south
through the area Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along and behind the front, mainly
across the northern two thirds of the region. Temperatures on
Tuesday will be well below seasonal normals, with highs in the mid
to upper 60s, and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s. A slow
warm up will ensue through the end of the work week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 58  86  58  87  57 /   5   0   0  20  30
San Angelo 	 54  88  56  88  58 /   5   0   0  10  20
Junction 	 55  89  58  89  57 /  30   0   5  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20/Daniels

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-252000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
259 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW PERHAPS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS...WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

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