Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
227 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.UPDATE...

The Storm Prediction Center has just issued Severe Thunderstorm
Watch number 72, and it covers all of West Central Texas. So, we
just sent an update to our Zone forecast to include a watch
headline for all of our counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will
likely impact Sonora, Brady, and Junction this afternoon and
evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Two upper level disturbance will bring a round of storms to most
TAF sites this morning and again this afternoon. Latest radar data
is showing an area of storms moving east and northeast towards
KSOA and KJCT and could reach those sites between 12Z and 15Z.
Main impacts will be gusty winds, brief heavy rain, lightning and
low visibilities. The IFR Cigs should gradually improve to VFR shortly
after 15Z. The next round of storms may form along the dryline
after 18Z at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. A few of these may become severe
and produce large hail, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

There is a threat for severe thunderstorms across the eastern half
of West Central Texas today as an upper level trough associated with
the upper low near the Four Corners moves across the region.  The
main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.  SPC has placed
much of the area east of the dryline in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms today.

Latest radar is showing showers developing across the mountains in
northern Mexico, south of Sanderson, in association with the next
approaching shortwave as can be seen on water vapor satellite
imagery.  This could bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to
West Central Texas this morning before the main upper trough moves
across later this afternoon.

The dryline is forecast to move east today as the RUC model progs
this front from Haskell to just east of San Angelo to Sonora by
early evening.  This dryline should trigger scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon as the following ingredients come together: dewpoints
ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, moderate 0-6km shear,
MU CAPE Values 1500-2000 J/KG, a weak capping inversion, approaching
upper trough and a right rear entrance region of the southern stream
upper level jet flowing across the area.  These parameters should
set the stage for the development of a few supercells today,
resulting in large hail and damaging winds.  These storms may
continue into the early evening hours before dissipating.

Highest Pops were placed across the Northwest Hill Country extending
north to Brownwood. Went closer to the warmer MAV MOS for
temps as the dry warm air invades the western part of the region
today.

26

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Cold front will move through Sunday. Dry southwest to west winds
ahead of the front will not only preclude rain chances, but also
give a boost to temperatures, being downslope compression. Still,
cold advection will bring cooler temperatures Sunday, with highs
in the 70s.

Isolated dryline thunderstorms possible mid and late week. West
Central Texas will be under a broad upper ridge, so widespread
showers or thunderstorms not expected. Could see a few highs
approach 90s, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 54  77  46  72  51 /  20   5   5   5   5
San Angelo 	 54  82  48  74  53 /  10   5   5   5  10
Junction 	 55  85  50  74  54 /  30   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-191730-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM HASKELL...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA...THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS LOWER...A TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE MAY NEED TO ACTIVATE SPOTTERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HUBER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
237 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TXZ066-072-073-182000-
RUNNELS TX-TOM GREEN TX-CONCHO TX-
237 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS...TOM GREEN AND CONCHO COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 234 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GOODFELLOW AIR FORCE BASE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN
ANGELO...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VERIBEST AND VANCOURT BY 245 PM CDT
  MERETA...EOLA AND MILES BY 250 PM CDT
  THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 380 AND RANCH ROAD 381 AND LOWAKE BY
  255 PM CDT
  ROWENA BY 300 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3173 10006 3138 9988 3128 10045 3147 10047
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 248DEG 46KT 3142 10033