Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
322 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Convection likely once again across West Central Texas, with
scattered thunderstorms developing. High CAPE, relatively modest
shear day suggests very large hail as the main threat. Can't rule
out an isolated tornado, especially as the low level jet ramps up
later this evening. Coverage is a big question, but once a few
storms develop they may be able to produce outflow for additional
development. All of this is conditional of course on getting the
first few storms to develop.

Given the moist air mass in place, and the low level jet of 30+
knots, if storms develop they may linger well past sunset. Once
they eventually dissipate, low clouds will return to the area.
These will continue into the morning before finally breaking up.
Chances for convection on Wednesday will be somewhat conditional
on what happens today. Dryline will be well west and there will be
weak ridging in place aloft for much of the afternoon. A weak
shortwave may approach West Texas for the Wednesday Night time
frame, but getting storms to develop before 00Z may well depend on
lingering outflow boundaries from tonights storms. Will include a
mention of isolated PoPs areawide, with the assumption that later
forecasts will need to define the area better.

07

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

By Wednesday night, the next strong upper level trough will be
starting to make its move toward west Texas. The NAM shows the
convection occurring earlier, more during Thursday afternoon and
evening as opposed to Thursday night. This is a break from the
trend that the GFS and ECMWF have established with most of the
convection expected Thursday night as the main upper level trough
axis sweeps through Texas, so have kept likely PoPs going through
the overnight hours Thursday night. However, this doesn't preclude
the possibility of some scattered afternoon thunderstorms
developing Thursday ahead of the main trough in a very unstable
environment. Although models aren't showing just fantastic shear,
MLCAPES Thursday afternoon and evening will be roughly 1500 J/kg
or greater, and thus severe weather will continue to be a concern
with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards, in
addition to heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Expect a drier day for Friday as we will be in between systems,
relatively speaking.

A cold front is still expected to slowly move south into Texas
Friday night into Saturday that could result in additional showers
and thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. However, the
any rain chances will be at least somewhat dependent on the
position of the front, and there is still a lot of uncertainty
with respect to how far south that front will make it, so have
kept PoP chances generally in the low end chance category from
Saturday through Sunday.

Weak northwest flow sets up by Monday with ridging over the
southern Rockies, as an upper level low moves southeast through
the Mississippi Valley. The ridge is expected to expand to the
east into our CWA during the first half of next week, so have kept
the inherited downward trend in PoPs from Monday into the middle
of next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 70  88  68  84  66 /  30  20  20  40  60
San Angelo 	 70  91  68  83  67 /  30  20  20  40  60
Junction 	 67  86  70  84  69 /  30  20  20  40  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
212 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-271915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
212 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
QUICKLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
326 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ099-262100-
THROCKMORTON TX-
326 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
THROCKMORTON COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 324 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LUSK...OR
ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THROCKMORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN SMALL TREE BRANCHES...
  DEADLY LIGHTNING...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  HAIL AND WIND MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINOR INJURY TO PLANTS AND
  MINOR DAMAGE TO EASILY BREAKABLE OBJECTS...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WOODSON BY 330 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3296 9895 3295 9896 3295 9909 3296 9916
      3296 9917 3316 9895 3315 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 223DEG 18KT 3297 9905

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ099-262100-
THROCKMORTON TX-
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
THROCKMORTON COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 332 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
THROCKMORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN SMALL TREE BRANCHES...
  DEADLY LIGHTNING...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  HAIL AND WIND MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINOR INJURY TO PLANTS AND
  MINOR DAMAGE TO EASILY BREAKABLE OBJECTS...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THROCKMORTON BY 340 PM CDT
  ELBERT BY 400 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3339 9895 3320 9894 3307 9926 3317 9935
      3341 9905 3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 237DEG 16KT 3318 9922

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             1 S WOODSON             33.00N  99.05W
05/26/2015  E1.50 INCH       THROCKMORTON       TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500435

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
356 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             THROCKMORTON            33.18N  99.18W
05/26/2015  E1.25 INCH       THROCKMORTON       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500436

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
411 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TXZ098-099-113-114-262145-
HASKELL TX-JONES TX-SHACKELFORD TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
411 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
HASKELL...JONES...SHACKELFORD AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 409 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER AVOCA...OR
ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STAMFORD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN SMALL TREE BRANCHES...
  DEADLY LIGHTNING...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  HAIL AND WIND MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINOR INJURY TO PLANTS AND
  MINOR DAMAGE TO EASILY BREAKABLE OBJECTS...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LUEDERS BY 420 PM CDT
  BIG COUNTRY BAPTIST ASSEMBLY BY 425 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3306 9924 3271 9922 3274 9981 3295 9984
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 266DEG 23KT 3284 9971

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