Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
622 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and
move over West Central Texas TAF sites this morning. The best
potential is over KABI 15-18Z. Have VCTS at most sites this
morning...with KABI down to 2 miles in moderate rain 15-18Z. MVFR
stratus should rise to VFR at most sites by 18Z, persisting until
21Z at KABI. MVFR stratus otherwise returns after 6Z tonight from
south to north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight )

..Heavy rainfall and severe storms possible today beginning early
this morning...

A strong upper trough will pass trough West Central Texas this
morning, with strong lift associated with it. The atmosphere was
already unstable with SPC RAP most unstable CAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG.
0-6KM bulk shears were 40-50 KTS. Large hail and damaging winds are
possible, even the potential for a tornado. The main threat, however
will be locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, as precipitable
water increases to 1.0-1.5 inches. Heavy rainfall on already
saturated soils will have the potential for flash flooding. A flash
flood watch is in effect through 4 PM CDT.

Most of the high resolution models develop a band of thunderstorms
over I-20 corridor...from Sterling City to Brownwood this morning,
mainly after 7 AM. Another second area of storms may develop east
off the mountains of Mexico... possibly affecting the Junction to
Mason to San Saba areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
continue in the Big Country in the afternoon with more isolated
storms farther south.  While the Big Country and southeast sections
will likely have highest potential for thunderstorms, just about
anywhere in West Central Texas will be at risk for severe storms
today with the strong instabilities present.

Kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern
sections tonight. Most of this will be in the evening hours.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday-Wednesday)
Dryline thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday during
the late afternoon and evening as temperatures climb into the 90s.
Moderate to high CAPE values and a low shear storm environment will
provide the threat for isolated strong updrafts that could result in
a few storms producing large hail and damaging winds.

(Thursday-Friday)
As a broad upper level trough of low pressure moves into Northern
Mexico, it will result in dryline afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day.  A cold front moving south through the
Central Plains could send an outflow boundary into West Central
Texas on Friday, providing another focus for thunderstorm development.
Max temperatures will be a little lower because of more cloud cover.

(Saturday-Sunday)
The previously mentioned cold front meandering across the region could
bring another threat for storms over the weekend with temperatures
in the lower 80s.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 80  63  90  69  89 /  70  10  20  10  20
San Angelo 	 85  63  93  69  91 /  50  10  20  10  20
Junction 	 84  65  91  70  89 /  70  20  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

&&

99/99/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
843 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-261345-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
843 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF A HASKELL TO ABILENE TO BROWNWOOD LINE. THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS
THIS AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY ALSO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ON ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REST OF WEEK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

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