Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
602 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting mainly the KABI
TAF this evening, where a VCTS group was included. Elsewhere,
convection should remain isolated. Stratus will move back into all
of the TAF sites after 06z, resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings. VFR
ceilings should return to all sites by late morning or early
afternoon Wednesday. A cold front will approach KABI around 17z,
then slowly move south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible along and behind the front, along with a wind shift to
the north at 8 to 12 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Flash flood Watch has been extended until 10 PM CDT tonight for
the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland...

The atmosphere is unstable this afternoon with RUC SB CAPES of
4000 J/KG. Severe storms are certainly possible this afternoon and
evening with the very strong instability. Strong storms were
already developing in the Trans Pecos and eastern Permian basin,
where less stratus was bringing more heating and instability.
These will likely move eastward into the Concho Valley this
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were also developing
from Robert Lee to Brownwood, then northward into the Big Country.

With saturated soil conditions from Wednesday storms, the flash
flood watch has been extended to 10 PM CDT to catch the evening
storms. While coverage is expected to be less, excessive rainfall
rates from slow moving storms will likely cause localized flash
flooding on saturated soils. The atmosphere remains very moist,
with the SPC mesoanalysis page indicating very high precipitable
waters of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which could bring very efficient
rainfall production.

Wednesday, a cold front will move into the Big Country in the
afternoon, and through the rest of West Central Texas overnight.
The atmosphere will remain unstable, and the front may be a
focus for severe thunderstorm development and localized flooding.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The slow moving cold front is forecast to be near the I-20
corridor by Wednesday evening. A potent shortwave trough is
progged to be lifting northeast across Far West TX by this time,
increasing large scale forcing for ascent. Precipitable water
values will be in the 1.4 to 1.6" range, providing ample moisture
for convective development. As thunderstorms develop along/north
of this cold front, southerly winds above the boundary layer will
feed Gulf moisture into the complex. This will help propagate the
cold front slowly south across the CWA through Thursday morning,
with east to northeast surface winds developing across West
Central TX. Relatively weak winds aloft will result in slower
storm motions, enhancing the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Another Flash Flood Watch may be required for this period.

The best rain chances shift to the southern zones on Thursday as
slightly drier air advects into the area behind this cold front.
Cooler temperatures are anticipated on Thursday, with highs in the
mid/upper 60s across the Big Country to the mid 70s along the I-10
corridor. The next shortwave trough is progged to approach West TX
Thursday and Thursday night. Rain chances ramp up accordingly, as
fairly widespread convection is anticipated across West Central
TX. Additional locally heavy rainfall will be possible during the
overnight hours.

Southerly winds are forecast to resume on Friday as the
aforementioned surface boundary washes out. Temperatures are
expected to respond by warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Again, showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours as thunderstorms over the
Permian Basin drift east into West Central TX.

The weather pattern over the weekend suggests a potential not only
for heavy rainfall, but also for severe weather. Southwest flow
aloft increases as a strong shortwave trough moves slowly east
across the Four Corners. Warmer surface temperatures, rich Gulf
moisture, and steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

In summary, showers and thunderstorms will be possible areawide
through Monday. The severe weather threat will be relatively low,
albeit still present. The potential for severe thunderstorms will
increase this weekend. Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern
through the period. Total rainfall amounts exceeding 4 inches are
possible.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  78  59  69  60 /  40  40  50  30  60
San Angelo 	 68  83  63  73  63 /  30  30  60  40  60
Junction 	 69  83  67  77  65 /  20  20  60  50  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Haskell...Irion...Jones...McCulloch...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.

&&

Daniels

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-202030-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 10 PM CDT. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...SAN SABA LINE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ON ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF AN OZONA...MERTZON...BALLINGER
TO CROSS PLAINS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. WHILE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
524 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             5 ENE OPLIN             32.16N  99.49W
05/19/2015  E1.00 INCH       CALLAHAN           TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500392

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
546 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             SILVER VALLEY           31.96N  99.55W
05/19/2015  E1.00 INCH       COLEMAN            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500393

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
557 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             1 ESE LAWN              32.13N  99.73W
05/19/2015  E1.75 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500394

DOLL